After 30 minutes of trading, something unexpected happened

— Monday isn’t about whether the market gets spooked. It’s about whether oil prices can turn this scare into inflation pricing.

Monday’s global markets opened violently:

Oil prices jumped at the open, but US crude had not yet moved above $75;

Gold opened lower with a gap down, then promptly broke through $4,100;

The US Dollar Index opened higher and moved above the 101 level—this is the first alarm bell across global markets;

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose to around 4.59%.

First, this doesn’t look like those previous “one-minute moves.” It looks more like the market has started repricing. Over the past few weeks, the market often followed a script of “first trading the war, then nothing happens.” But after 30 minutes into today’s open, the rising assets didn’t unwind like before, and the falling assets didn’t claw back their losses like before.

Second, the only thing still not fully confirmed is oil prices. The dollar and Treasury yields have basically already reached the key levels mentioned in our article yesterday. For the rest of today, the focus is to watch oil. If US crude stays unable to hold above $75, it means energy supply risk hasn’t truly entered market pricing. Conversely, once it stabilizes above $75 and starts pushing toward $77 to $80, what the market is trading won’t be only geopolitics anymore—it will be input-driven inflation that’s back on the rise.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has intensified uncertainty: Iran says it has shut down the waterway, while the US side says shipping can still proceed via its southern routes.

Third, the focus this week is the US June CPI to be released on Tuesday. Its importance is higher than usual (on the day before CPI, markets often see “precautionary retreat”). Economists expect headline inflation and core inflation to both ease slightly in June, but they still expect both to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.

What’s truly worth watching today isn’t how much markets moved at the open, but whether these assets can hold their current levels after the European session and before the US stock market opens. If the dollar continues to hold above 101 and the 10-year Treasury yield stays near 4.60%, while US crude breaks through and holds above $75, the market may be signaling that it has entered a new round of risk repricing. Otherwise, if oil prices fall back again and the dollar and Treasury yields surge then retreat, this week may still be just a brief, sentiment-driven fluctuation.

Risk warning: This article is based only on publicly available information and market data for analysis and information sharing. It does not constitute any investment advice or any promise of returns. Financial markets involve risk; investment decisions should be made independently based on your own circumstances.