The Strait of Hormuz closes, and global energy markets may face their biggest test yet

Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, once again drawing global attention to this world energy “choke point.” The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments; if shipping is disrupted, international energy supply chains will face a major shock. Recently, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard again announced the closure of the strait, while the United States said the shipping lanes remain open—there is a clear discrepancy between the two sides, and the regional situation remains tense.

The most direct reaction in the market is often not war, but risk premium. International oil prices could rise rapidly; shipping insurance costs could skyrocket; transportation costs will increase, and ultimately feed into global inflation. From Asian manufacturing to consumer markets in Europe and the United States, new cost pressures may emerge.

However, historical experience suggests that although the Strait of Hormuz has repeatedly faced crises, a truly long-term complete blockade is rare. The United States and its allies have long maintained naval forces in the Gulf region, and Middle East oil-producing countries have also been building land pipelines designed to bypass the strait. Therefore, while the market may panic, it does not necessarily mean that global energy supplies will be cut off immediately.

In the coming days, what’s truly worth watching is whether all sides continue to escalate military actions. If diplomatic mediation is restarted, market sentiment may recover quickly; conversely, if more military conflicts arise, safe-haven assets such as crude oil and gold could continue to strengthen, while global stock markets may face even greater pressure.
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