Escalation in the Iran–U.S. conflict: U.S. forces carry out night raids on dozens of targets in Iran, and the Kuwait base is hit by retaliation first

The U.S. Central Command announced that it completed a new round of precision strikes against Iran on July 12, while Iran, meanwhile, carried out an attack ahead of schedule on a U.S. missile base in Kuwait.
(Background: Big news! Foreign media report that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have been extended by 60 days! Iran pledges to “clear underwater mines” within 30 days to reopen the Strait of Hormuz)
(Additional context: Trump’s final countdown for Iran—before Saturday, publicly guarantee that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, and do not fire at commercial vessels, or you will bear the consequences)

Table of contents

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• Iran strikes first: Kuwait base hit
• New framework for the Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s “management upgrade”
• Two-front battlefield: economic warfare and oil prices

In the early hours of July 13, the U.S. Central Command said that its forces had completed, on July 12 local time, a new round of precision strikes against Iran, targeting dozens of targets across multiple locations. According to the U.S. Central Command, the Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime route for global trade, Iran does not control the strait, and the U.S. military is prepared to ensure freedom of navigation for commercial shipping.

Iran strikes first: Kuwait base hit

Before the U.S. military launched a counterattack, Iran struck first. According to a report from Iran’s Mehr Mehrır News Agency in the early hours of July 13, Iran carried out an attack on U.S. missile-launching facilities stationed in Kuwait, and facilities related to the ATACMS ground-attack missile system at the U.S. base were hit, with thick smoke rising at the scene.

Iranian media outlet Fars News also confirmed that several explosions were heard in coastal areas near Abbas Port and Qeshm Island, indicating that the U.S. military strikes had reached key ports along Iran’s Persian Gulf coastline.

New framework for the Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s “management upgrade”

In addition to military operations, Iran is also advancing diplomacy in parallel. On July 12, Mohammad Eslami, a senior researcher at the University of Tehran, revealed that Iran has been in contact with the United States, Oman, and some European countries regarding this new management framework.

Eslami emphasized that “Iran does not want to block the Strait of Hormuz,” but is instead pushing for a “new management model.” He added that, under Clause 5 of the confidentiality memorandum, the United States has accepted arrangements for Iran and neighboring countries to jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz.

On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Trump wants to reach an agreement with Iran, especially on nuclear issues—“but if Iran does not honor its commitments, he will use force without hesitation.”

Two-front battlefield: economic warfare and oil prices

The Iranian president also said at the same time, “We are taking part in a complex economic warfare; successfully overcoming this phase requires citizens’ active participation.” A Wall Street Journal survey of economists this month also showed that the war with Iran has made inflation more stubborn, already above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, leaving even less room for rate cuts.

Economists’ average expected probability of an economic recession over the next 12 months fell from 33% in April to 25%, the lowest level since the beginning of 2025.