Is Russia’s economic “illusion” cracking? | Rewire News Morning Brief

A European intelligence report says Russia’s wartime “boom” is built on debt, and a banking crisis could be triggered at any moment. In the direction of the Persian Gulf, the US military hit 300 targets in three nights, and oil prices only rose 3%.

1｜European intelligence report: Russia’s economy is a “mirage,” and a banking crisis is about to be triggered

A European state intelligence report seen by Reuters estimates that 10% of Russia’s corporate loans may be unrecoverable, and that some of the largest banks’ 15% retail loans have already become non-performing assets. In 2025, more than 500,000 Russians declared personal bankruptcy, up by about one-third year over year. National projects had previously encouraged citizens to hold more than three loans at the same time, and 13 million people followed suit.

The Ministry of Economic Development has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.4%. The Ministry of Finance is drafting legislation in an attempt to tap $40 billion in savings from private pension funds. Russian Communist Party leaders told parliament bluntly that the 1.3 quadrillion rubles in bank accounts should be “mobilized” to resolve the economic predicament.

Putin’s wartime economic model replaces fiscal spending with bank credit, forcing the private sector to bear the costs of expansion. The banks complied, and the risks remained on the banks’ balance sheets. Now inflation is devouring purchasing power, while bad debts are eroding capital adequacy ratios—this machine has begun to turn on itself. Once pensions are “mobilized,” it will be another credit default by Russia on its middle class.

(Source: Reuters / Fortune / Yahoo Finance / US News)

2｜US military strikes 300 targets in three nights; Iran attacks five Gulf neighbors (continuing yesterday’s report)

The US Central Command completed its third round of strikes on the evening of July 12, hitting about 140 Iranian military targets in a single night. Over three days, the total exceeded 300, covering missile bases, drone bases, ammunition depots, communication networks, and coastal monitoring facilities. The trigger was that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps again opened fire on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s response was not only aimed at the US. US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Oman were all hit by Iranian missiles. Qatar intercepted the debris, injuring three people—one of them a child. The Joint Maritime Information Center for the strait said the southern-route passage along Oman’s coastline remains open. Over the past two months, US escort operations carried out protection for more than 800 ships and 400 million barrels of crude oil through the strait.

Market reaction was unusually calm. US oil rose 3.2% to $73.70 per barrel, and Brent rose 3.2% to $78.45 per barrel. Rapidan Energy president McNally warned that there is “a lot of complacency.” The shell of the June ceasefire agreement has already cracked, and the two sides are effectively in an undeclared naval war.

(Source: CENTCOM / Fortune / Al Jazeera / NPR / PBS / JMIC)

3｜Graham suddenly dies; the last push behind the Saudi-Israel peace disappears

US Senator Lindsey Graham died on July 12 from a “sudden serious illness,” at age 71. In the final weeks of his life, he was making a last round of push for Saudi Arabia and Israel to establish diplomatic ties. Graham began urging Trump in mid-May to make Saudi-Israel normalization the core of the Iran post-war regional plan, and Trump later said, during a call with leaders of multiple countries, that he was willing to push it forward.

The obstacles are in the details. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s enthusiasm has waned, and Riyadh insists that normalization must include an irreversible timeline leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition government rejected that condition.

Graham was the most powerful driving force behind the deal in Washington. He began his involvement in 1999 with the impeachment of Clinton, was elected senator in 2002, and for more than two decades afterward remained at the center of US foreign policy. With his disappearance, the question of “what to do after Iran” lost its most active responder. South Carolina Congressman Nancy Mace has said she has “seriously considered” running for his Senate seat.

(Source: Fortune / Axios / Times of Israel / The Media Line)

4｜Ireland data centers consume 23% of the national electricity—more than the total for all urban households nationwide

Data from Ireland’s Central Statistics Office shows that in 2025, data centers consumed 23% of the country’s electricity, reaching 7,663 GWh, up 10% year over year. This figure surpasses the total electricity used by all Irish urban households (18%), and is more than double that used by rural households (9%). The International Energy Agency previously predicted that data centers would account for one-third of Ireland’s electricity consumption by 2026.

Grid operator EirGrid had previously imposed an access ban on new data centers in the Dublin area, replacing it with new rules at the end of last year: each new facility must have its own on-site power generation or energy storage system, and 80% of its annual electricity use must come from newly built renewable energy projects. On the same day, Trinidad and Tobago signed memorandums for data center construction with two US companies, despite the Caribbean island nation’s long-standing water resource shortages.

AI computing power demand is globally looking for places to land, from Europe to the Caribbean. Each landing spot is being asked to pay a different cost for the same problem. Ireland is paying for grid security; Trinidad is paying for fresh water.

(Source: Tom’s Hardware / The Register / CSO Ireland / EirGrid / Fortune)

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