#伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡 The Roar of the Strait: July 12, 2026

I. Introduction: When “temporary” becomes “until further notice”

On July 12, 2026, an ordinary Sunday, a roar from the Strait of Hormuz nevertheless etched itself into history.

In the early hours local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement: the Strait of Hormuz would be closed starting immediately, “until further notice,” and until the United States stopped interfering in this region. No vessels would be allowed to pass. Shortly after, the U.S. Central Command announced the launch of the third round of strikes against Iran this week. Reports from multiple places in southern Iran—Bushehr, Asaluyeh, Abbas Port, and others—said explosions were heard.

The strait that handles about one fifth of global oil trade was shut within a single night. In the crude oil OTC market, prices surged sharply: New York crude OTC rose 3.27%, while Brent crude OTC rose 3.10%. The cryptocurrency market plunged again, with 58.2k people worldwide being liquidated.

This is not a small-scale escalation of friction. This is a strategic standoff.

II. The Strait of Hormuz: From a “charging-and-negotiating cycle” to a full lockdown

(I) The spark: a cargo ship and a missile

The direct cause of the incident was a container ship flying the flag of Cyprus. According to an Iranian statement, several ships attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz along routes that had not been approved by Iran, ignoring Iran’s prompts and warnings to adjust course. One vessel shut off its automatic identification system, and was hit by an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps cruise missile, causing it to stop. The attack resulted in one crew member missing, the vessel caught fire, and the engine room was severely damaged, leaving it unable to continue sailing.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard then announced that the strait would be closed.

But the U.S. narrative was completely different. U.S. officials said that this week’s renewed fighting was due to an “uncontrolled faction” within Iran’s hardliners trying to sabotage the ceasefire arrangements. The U.S. demanded that Iran issue a public declaration that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open, and commit to not attacking cargo ships again, as the core condition for continuing negotiations.

One ship, one missile, two radically different narratives—truth is always the first casualty in wartime.

(II) A strategic upgrade from “service fees” to “full closure”

Looking back at the past month, Iran’s posture on the Strait of Hormuz issue went through a clear three-step escalation:

First stage: charging. Previously, Iran’s ambassador to China, Fazli, explicitly said in Beijing that Iran planned to impose a “service fee” on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Second stage: warning shots and selective interdiction. Over the past week, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warning shots and intercepted “violating” vessels multiple times.

Third stage: full closure. Early on July 12, Iran no longer distinguished between “compliant” and “non-compliant” vessels—every vessel was barred from passage.

The logic behind the upgrade is straightforward: Iran realized that the Strait of Hormuz had become a diplomatic lever with more weight than the nuclear issue. As some analyses pointed out, less than a month after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire understanding memorandum was reached, the two countries fought again over control of the strait. The fundamental reason was that Trump wanted to push Iran to reach an agreement as soon as possible, while Iran wanted to secure more negotiating leverage.

(III) Trump’s predicament: not enough cards

Iran’s willingness to be so hardline stems from having seen through Trump’s hand.

First, international oil prices have fallen sharply by 35% from their May highs, and U.S. stocks have kept setting new highs, easing Trump’s worries and giving him room to intensify military intimidation. But on the other hand, Trump wants to lower gasoline prices and inflation to boost public sentiment and prospects in the midterm election, yet he also dares not risk a large number of U.S. service members’ casualties by sending ground troops to invade Iran.

More importantly, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mujtaba, has just completed the consolidation of power. The state funeral for the late Supreme Leader Khamenei showed unprecedented unity in domestic public opinion, and despite U.S. diplomatic pressure, nearly one hundred countries still sent representatives. Mujtaba has issued a written statement saying he would take “revenge” for Khamenei and the martyrs. An Iran that has just completed the transfer of power, with high public morale and a leader’s vow of revenge, will not easily back down under pressure.

To break Iran’s “delay tactics,” Trump can only force negotiations through war. But the prerequisite for “forcing negotiations through war” is that the other side believes you will genuinely carry the fight through—and Iran clearly does not believe that.

II. The intensifying “split-brain” in financial markets

Gold’s performance this week was dramatic, yet it ended nearly flat—down less than 2% for the week, with gold price closing at about $4,120 per ounce. As oil prices rose, market anxiety about inflation heated up. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly climbed to 4.58%, dragging gold lower.

Then came the news that the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and crude oil OTC surged straight up. Cryptocurrency, seen as a risk-on indicator, plunged: Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 0.60%. In the same world, different assets delivered radically different pricing—markets have fractured so deeply that they can no longer form a unified reaction to the same event.

In its latest forecast released on July 12, the IMF cut its outlook for 2026 global economic growth while raising its forecast for overall inflation to 4.7%. The ghost of “stagflation” from the 1970s is quietly returning in the summer of 2026.

III. When the strait can be closed overnight

On July 12, 2026, the world presented an unsettling picture:

In the Strait of Hormuz, a strait carrying one fifth of global oil trade can be closed within a few hours. Global energy security no longer depends on supply and demand or market mechanisms, but on a single line from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: “until further notice.”

In Ankara, the NATO summit has just ended, leaving the world with a revolver, the shortest joint declaration in history, and an alliance that even refuses to commit to when the next meeting will be held.

In Washington, the Federal Reserve for the first time listed AI as an inflation driver. The world’s most important central bank is wavering between “rate hikes” and “no rate hikes,” while inflation has already risen to 4.7%.

All the anchors of the old order—the energy anchor of Hormuz, NATO’s security anchor, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate anchor, and the trust anchor in great-power relations—are simultaneously shaking and even breaking. And the outlines of the new order are far from emerging.