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CITIC Futures: Mixed long and short positions; palm oil prices are fluctuating with a weak bias

K-LinePoet
With long and short positions intertwined, palm oil prices are fluctuating and trending weak. The June inventory increase released by MPOB came in above expectations, rising to a four-month high; meanwhile, the production increase exceeded the export increase. After the report on Friday, prices pressured and weakened. Early in the week, prices rebounded, driven by a surge in crude oil and strength in soybean oil. Expectations for Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel policy provide downside support. Compared with other edible oils, the rise has lagged noticeably. Outlook: In the near term, prices will face pressure during a high-production and inventory-accumulation cycle. The rebound’s height will depend on competitor oils and crude oil. If July exports continue to improve and Indonesia’s B50 is implemented to absorb more output, prices may stabilize in stages; otherwise, high inventories will cap upside, so the market should be viewed as range-bound with a slightly weak bias. (CITIC Futures)
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