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CITIC Futures: The spread between hog fat and standard prices widens, and small traders’ sentiment to hold back increases

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In the short term, the spread between hog fattening benchmark prices has widened, retail farmers have become more reluctant to sell, and breeding companies are slowing down their hog release schedule, leading to a rebound in live hog spot prices. In the near term, inventory at secondary buyers has started to accumulate, increasing the risk of future shipments. In the first half of this year, the number of piglets born remains at a high level; it is expected that in the third quarter, theoretical supply of market hogs will be sufficient, so the room for hog prices to rebound is limited. In the long term, the process of capacity reduction accelerated slightly in the second quarter, but the current cumulative reduction in breeding sows is still insufficient. Meanwhile, sow output per head is still expected to improve in 2026, so the cycle inflection point is expected to be realized at the end of 2026, and the start pace of the cycle may be relatively moderate. It is recommended to continue monitoring changes in the number of breeding sows on hand, as well as validating the effectiveness of capacity reduction via changes in piglet numbers. (CITIC Futures)
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