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On-chain dynamics: Valuation enters deep discount, but long-term holders are still selling
Glassnode’s latest full report shows that BTC has been trading below:
$72.2k: the cost basis of short-term holders;
$76,600: the True Market Mean.
Long-term holders’ loss realization accounts for about 43% of total realized value; the peak daily loss realization is about $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. The metric has not yet shown sustained declines. Glassnode believes the bottoming process has entered its later stage, but has not been completed yet.
Potential impact: moderately bullish in the medium term, bearish in the short term.
Deep discount is favorable for patient capital accumulation, but every rebound will face sell pressure from long-term holders looking to break even while still underwater. Real medium-term trend repair requires at least:
a clear decline in long-term holders’ loss realization;
ETF inflows staying positive;
the price moving back above the 72.2k cost basis zone.