Analyst cuts SK hynix’s second-quarter earnings forecast, but expects long-term profit growth to continue

Odaily Planet Daily: Analyst jukan of Citrini said in a post on X that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae expects SK Hynix to post operating profit of 60.4 trillion won in Q2 2026, up 61% quarter-over-quarter and 556% year-over-year, which is 8% below the market consensus of 65 trillion won.

The analyst said the lowered outlook is mainly because SK Hynix’s HBM sales mix is higher than that of peers, the increase in ordinary DRAM prices is lower than previously expected by the market, and long-term supply agreements (LTA) will keep ASP (average selling price) more stable. It lowered its Q2 2026 DRAM composite ASP quarter-over-quarter growth forecast to 28.9%, from 50.0%, and its commodity DRAM ASP growth forecast to 34.2%, from 60.6%. With HBM4 mass production officially starting in Q3 2026, the composite ASP growth is expected to return to about the market-average quarter-over-quarter level of around 10%.

However, the analyst believes this adjustment is not a sign of a downturn in the industry. The recent outlook change is a more realistic reflection of the structure of 3 to 5 year LTAs, and is expected to result in more stable long-term earnings growth. For fiscal years 2026 to 2028, the year-over-year operating profit growth rates are expected to be 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.