📈 BOSS Business School | July 13 Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis

📌 Market Highlights

🔸 Crypto News

BTC treasury company holdings, compared with the historical peak, have evaporated by more than $100 billion in value.

From November 2024 to October 2025 is the period when corporate reserve companies were the most aggressive buyers of Bitcoin. At that time, BTC’s main trading range was $75,000–$125,000. However, the current pace of corporate accumulation has clearly slowed, and the market has begun to wonder whether these companies, like Strategy, will adjust their holdings at relatively lower levels in the future to further increase potential selling pressure on the market.

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🌍 Macro Market

① HORMUZ Strait shipping volume drops sharply

After Iran announced yet another closure of the Strait of Hormuz, commercial shipping traffic shrank significantly. According to shipping-tracking data, in the past 24 hours only 11 merchant ships passed through the strait— including 8 oil tankers and 3 cargo ships— and market concerns about the global energy supply chain continue to intensify.

② US-Iran conflict escalates again

Over the weekend, the US and Iran saw missile attacks break out again. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East rose rapidly, risk-hedging sentiment warmed up, and that also put greater pressure on risk assets.

③ Key focus this week: US CPI data

This week’s market focus will be on the US June CPI (Consumer Price Index), which will be released on Tuesday evening at 20:30 (Taiwan time).

Market expectations:

Overall CPI month-over-month: -0.1%
Core CPI month-over-month: 0.3%

If the actual data comes in below market expectations, it would mean that inflation pressures may cool, and market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts could rise— potentially helping drive a Bitcoin rebound.

On the contrary, if CPI is higher than expected, expectations for higher interest rates may heat up again, the US dollar could strengthen, and it would continue to weigh on BTC and the overall cryptocurrency market.

Overall, with the Middle East situation heating up and macro uncertainty still high, the market remains bearish in the short term. In terms of strategy, “enter short positions on rallies” is still the primary approach.

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📊 BTC Technical Analysis (Daily)

Looking at the daily chart, in the prior wave around $64,000, Bitcoin saw heavy trading volume, but due to sell pressure, it has never been able to effectively hold above. The price has now fallen back to consolidate near the main moving averages.

The overall long structure has not been broken yet, but there are signs that upside momentum has already begun to slow.

Technical indicators:

The MACD green histogram bars continue to shorten, and the two lines gradually converge.
RSI has fallen back to around the neutral zone, indicating that market wait-and-see sentiment is warming up.

If BTC can regain and hold above $64,000, it still has the potential to challenge the $65,000 resistance area afterward.

On the contrary, once it breaks below the $63,000 whole-number level, the bears could further expand their advantage, and an accelerated selloff is not ruled out.

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📈 Overhead Resistance

🔹 First resistance: $64,729 (July 7 high)

🔹 Second resistance: $65,255 (Bollinger Channel upper rail; also near the area close to short liquidations)

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📉 Support Levels

🔹 First support: $61,793 (Bollinger Channel middle rail)

🔹 Second support: $58,254 (Bollinger Channel lower rail)

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📍 Today’s Trading Advice

For the short term, it’s still recommended to carry out trades according to the morning-session strategy. It’s not recommended to chase after highs; keep a close eye on the volatility risks before and after the CPI data is released.

At present, the market is influenced by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and macroeconomic factors. Overall, price action is still mostly range-bound and consolidating. In terms of trading, it’s recommended to control position size and strictly set stop-losses, with risk management as the top priority.

⚠️ Investing involves risk; enter the market with caution.