This morning, the U.S. Central Command continued attacking Iran, and Iran retaliated as well. And then Trump—the clown—started talking again. However, the clownish things he said this time no longer have much effect. For BTC, what he said was that Iran stated it would pause the fighting, but then it broke out again—so in the end, it’s just a delay.

Oil prices rose again. Earlier, they were below 70; now they’ve climbed to 78. Trump has most likely gone long. In the end, negotiations still have to happen—just like the Korean War, where they fight, then pause, and then talk. Specifically, it’s mostly strikes on smaller targets, and there won’t be any large-scale military operations anymore. But with this kind of fighting keeping oil prices at a relatively high level compared with before the war, inflation will inevitably remain relatively high as well. On top of that, China’s blockade of Japan, and the fact that helium isn’t being exported, will also push inflation higher. Without helium, it’s impossible to produce chips, so that’s very important. In the morning, stocks in both South Korea and Japan were falling.

Taken together, it feels like the overall trend is not looking good. The Federal Reserve should take a fairly cautious monetary policy, and that’s not good for BTC to keep rising.

In the morning, BTC broke below the key level of 636. I entered a short position. I originally thought it would break through 647, but it didn’t. Then it broke down again and violated 636. Support above has flipped into resistance, and 640–647 has become a pressure zone. But observing BTC: after it broke 644 at 8:00, the rebound didn’t have any strength. The consecutive rebounds at 641, 639, and 637 also had no strength. The sell-off had strength—so I decisively went short. I marked the levels on the chart below.

With the $TREE profit I had in hand, I already exited. After all, if BTC is going to drop, no one can avoid it!

For BTC, if the downside 620–612 can’t hold, then this upmove is basically at an end—we should be ready to welcome the next leg down.

With this drop, the weekly chart and the daily chart both look pretty ugly, and there’s increased volume. I’m preparing to close part of the short positions first around 620–612, and then see whether it can drop to that level, and whether it can hold as support at that time.
‍$BTC