The U.S. Central Command announced that on July 12 local time it launched a new round of targeted precision strikes against Iran, hitting dozens of locations. The Strait of Hormuz, a global key energy shipping route, once again saw geopolitical tensions heat up. Against this backdrop, the news is likely to cause only short-term disturbances to Bitcoin overall, making it difficult to change the current core market rhythm.

In the short term, the Middle East conflict is pushing up oil prices and raising concerns about inflation, which is positive for traditional safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. With Bitcoin currently having more risk-asset characteristics, it is prone to a pattern of spiking up then pulling back, with intraday wicks. In addition, heightened tensions will strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish policy, which indirectly suppresses upside room for non-yielding cryptocurrencies. However, this time is only a small-scale precision strike and has not triggered a full-scale war. Geopolitical sentiment is likely to remain weak in terms of persistence, so capital will not cluster in a long-term rush to sell Bitcoin for safety.
Currently, Bitcoin is still consolidating within the 63,000-64,500 range, building up energy, awaiting the U.S. CPI inflation data as a directional guide. Geopolitical headlines will only amplify short-term volatility and will not break the existing box-range structure. Near-term resistance is 64,300-64,500, with stronger mid-term pressure at 65,800-66,000; key support below is 63,500, and the pivot between bulls and bears is 61,500.
Going forward, if the conflict remains at its current scale, the market will quickly digest the news and return to a data-driven trading rhythm. If the situation escalates further and shipping routes are disrupted, a sharp surge in oil prices could push up U.S. Treasury yields, putting pressure on Bitcoin and driving it to pull back. In terms of strategy, it is not advisable to chase the news-driven volatility. Maintain a wait-and-see stance, act in line with developments once the inflation data is released, strictly control position size, and set stop-loss levels to guard against risks from short-term whipsawing.