The U.S. military launched the fourth round of airstrikes on Iran; international oil prices jumped by more than 3% on the spot. This week’s U.S. CP (CPI) data and the Federal Reserve officials’ testimonies before Congress will directly shape the direction of global markets.

Tensions in the Middle East escalated again. The U.S. conducted a fourth round of military strikes over the weekend, and Iran immediately announced an indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides’ statements completely contradict each other. The U.S. claims the route is operating normally, while Iran insists on keeping the blockade in place until the U.S. stops military intervention. The U.S. Central Command also weighed in to deny that Iran controls the strait. This shipping lane carries one-fifth of the world’s oil transportation, and the conflict’s escalation is driving crude oil prices higher.

In early trading, U.S. crude rose by more than 3%, quoted at $73.64; Brent crude pushed up to $78.36. The surge in oil prices has intensified inflation worries. The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tight policy. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose by 2 basis points to 4.59%. Interest-rate futures indicate there is still 34 basis points of possible rate hikes by year-end. Under pressure, gold broke below the 4,100 level, falling 1.2% on the day. U.S. stock index futures for all three major indexes moved lower in sync, with Nasdaq futures down 0.52%.

This week’s key focus is in the second half. On Tuesday at 20:30, the U.S. June cPI will be released. The market expects headline inflation to fall from 4.2% to 3.8%, with core inflation edging down to 2.8%. After that, the Federal Reserve Chair will appear at congressional hearings for two consecutive days. This will be the first time the chair has given public testimony since taking office. Markets will focus on his remarks on inflation and the pace of rate hikes.

The logic in the current market is clear: Middle East conflict lifts oil prices → inflation expectations recover → expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are delayed, putting pressure on risk assets. Oil-price volatility will directly affect the strength of the Fed’s tightening policy. If CPI data comes in above expectations, the probability of another rate hike in September will rise sharply.

This week’s market fluctuations are likely to be significantly amplified. Position holders must do risk control to avoid incurring losses from back-and-forth swings caused by data-driven moves. $BTC #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡