Let’s talk about the “copy-the-bottom” everyone’s been hotly discussing, and share my view:

$58,000 can only be regarded as a stage-level bottom—absolutely not a long-term bottom.

So recently, my thinking has been very clear: I’ll only focus on rebounces within a range, not bottom-fishing and lying flat, and not engaging in a bet on a reversal.

Then, let’s combine an objective breakdown of the ETF capital flows:

This week, the “big pancake” spot ETF finally ended its streak of continuous outflows for 8 straight weeks, and the weekly net inflow is roughly $197.4 million–$281.8 million.

However, the signals of divergence are very clear. On July 10, it again recorded a net outflow of $95.3 million in a single day, and there’s an obvious short-term disconnect between price and capital.

More importantly, in terms of data comparison: the capital that flowed back this week only covers about 2.4% of the total $8.26 billion outflow accumulated over the previous 8 weeks.

This is merely a technical replenishment of capital after a deep sell-off and a recovery in sentiment. It’s far from meeting the standard for a trend reversal.

The overall big-bear structure hasn’t changed. After the rebound reaches a suitable high level, it will still be the same: I’ll choose the right timing to set up medium-term short positions.