Crypto Big Brother’s 0713 ETH daily thoughts

Entry timing: 18:20-18:30
Add to short on the breakout: 18:35-18:45 area
Short-term long test: pullback to 17:85-17:90 for a light, low-bid buy
Stop-loss settings
Unified stop-loss for shorts: above 18:55
Stop-loss for short-term longs: below 17:80
Take-profit by tiers
Shorts, target one: 17:85
Shorts, target two: 17:60
Short-term longs, targets: 18:15-18:20
0713 macro and news: inflation rebounds; ETH is most sensitive to liquidity depletion
Geopolitical conflict ignites inflation, and rate-hike expectations are reignited: on July 13, the US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis sent oil prices soaring. Inflation rebounding directly shattered the market’s dream of rate cuts, and even started pricing in the Fed resuming rate hikes. ETH is extremely sensitive to macro liquidity—once rate expectations rise, ETH’s valuation-drawdown is far more brutal than BTC’s.
The deflation narrative is completely shattered: since the Dencun upgrade, Layer2 has drained the mainnet’s Gas fees. Latest data shows ETH burn has sharply declined, and ETH is back in an inflationary state. The “ultrasound money” narrative that once supported high valuations has collapsed, and fundamental support has been greatly weakened.
0713 fund flows: ETF outflows end but weakness remains obvious; institutions look to cut positions
ETF inflows are just “leaky buckets”: data shows that for the week of July 7 to 11, ETH spot ETFs recorded about $84.42 million net inflow, ending eight straight weeks of capital outflows. But this is only short-term position replenishment after prior oversold conditions. Compared with the huge gap of more than $2.0 billion in net outflows over the previous months, these more than $420k are barely anything—incremental capital is still drying up.
On-chain activity hits a freezing point: Glassnode shows the number of active addresses on the ETH network drops to a low of 420 thousand, with user participation continuing to decline. With no native on-chain demand to support it, rebounds are like water without a source.
Big whales unload on the rebound: although the number of some early whale addresses has increased, above $1,800, on-chain monitoring shows multiple large-holder addresses continue transferring ETH into exchanges. The main force is wildly distributing chips during the ETF-short-term inflow window, and the risk of retail bag-holding is extremely high. $ETH #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡