Analysis: BTC short-term holders (STH) cost basis becomes a key resistance; over 9 months “underwater” linked to bear market cycles

On July 12, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published an analysis on the X platform, noting that Bitcoin (BTC) short-term holders’ (STH) cost basis shows market characteristics tied to bear market cycles.

Specifically, BTC has been trading for more than 9 months continuously below the STH cost basis. This kind of long-term “underwater” state for STHs typically corresponds to a bear market phase.

At present, the STH cost basis stands at around $70,700 and continues to act as a price resistance. In May this year, the market also already reflected this price pressure: after BTC rose to about $82k to test the area, it quickly met with a pullback.

However, as this cost-basis line has recently shown a clear decline, Darkfost believes this is a signal that some investors are adding positions on dips, thereby lowering their own average holding costs.

He also pointed out that for BTC to break out of its current state and regain the level of the STH cost basis, the primary positive signal is a successful reclaim of this key threshold.

#BTC #Short-term holders