BTC drops 0.33% in one hour: Middle East conflict escalates and a stronger US dollar weigh on the market

From 01:00 to 02:00 (UTC) on July 13, 2026, BTC fell by 0.33% within one hour. The price ranged from 63,658.1 to 64,069.0 USDT, with a 0.64% amplitude. Trading was thin and overall volatility was limited, with both long and short sides stuck in a wait-and-see standoff.

The main driver behind BTC’s pressure this time is a macro safe-haven effect sparked by a sharp escalation in Middle East geopolitical conflict. After the United States launched a military strike against Iran, Iran retaliated, leading to the Strait of Hormuz being effectively shut down (vessels passing fell from 130+ to 22). Brent crude jumped more than 3% to $78.68 per barrel. The surge in oil prices reinforced expectations of sticky inflation. Deep divisions within the Federal Reserve over the rate-hike path pushed market pricing for two more rate hikes by year-end to 52.1%, while the US dollar index strengthened sharply. Through the transmission chain of “oil prices rising → inflation expectations heating up → rate-hike probabilities rising → the dollar strengthening,” BTC, as a risk asset, suffered valuation pressure.

At the same time, there was negative feedback at the industry level: New Hampshire rejected a $100 million Bitcoin support bond proposal, weakening short-term momentum for institutional adoption narratives. Shares of American Bitcoin Corp have plunged by about 97% year-to-date, reflecting deeper troubles facing the mining sector under price pressure. Order book data shows the buy/sell depth ratio is only 0.11, indicating overwhelming sell-side dominance. Around $63,998.3, there is a large sell-wall totaling 0.4035 BTC, creating significant near-term resistance.

The market is currently in a stalemated wait-and-see phase. On the technical side, the 15-minute ADX reached 41.96, indicating a relatively strong short-term trend, but moving averages remain bearish. There should be caution that if BTC breaks below $63,500, it could trigger accelerated downside due to technical stop-losses. Going forward, key factors to watch include whether the Strait of Hormuz restores passage, the Federal Reserve’s stance in its July policy meeting, and whether Brent crude can break above $80—these will determine BTC’s short-term direction.