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ADR halo fades! $SKHYNIX Fear bottom or a continued downturn?
Brothers, SK Hynix once again plunged by more than 9.6% today. The frenzy of a 12.76% surge on the first day of ADR listing last Friday was cooled off with a bucket of cold water just over the weekend.
On the news front:
ADR listing hit the peak at launch, then profit-taking stampede to exit. Hynix ADR closed at $168.01 last Friday, up 12.76% versus the IPO pricing. On Monday, the common shares opened and immediately faced a violent selloff—an NH Investment & Securities analyst bluntly said that after the U.S. listing ended, investors concentrated on taking profits. Korean stocks once fell by more than 8%, breaking below 2 million won, retreating 33% from the historical high on June 25.
Institutions douse Q2 earnings expectations. Korea Investment & Securities predicts that Hynix’s Q2 operating profit could be 8% lower than the market’s consensus estimate, mainly because HBM revenue makes up too high a proportion, which in turn limits room for average selling price to rise.
“Smart money” starts admitting the exit. A whale that previously accumulated profits of more than $5.29 million through long/short trading in U.S. stocks now has two storage-sector long positions with a combined unrealized loss of about $1.8 million—Hynix holds a more-than-2x long position worth $8.85 million, opened at 1494.5, with an unrealized loss of $1.18 million.
Technical picture:
RSI1 is currently only 6.89, extremely oversold
Resistance overhead: 1400-1450, heavy pressure 1500
Support below: 1300; if lost, watch 1279
Public view:
The threefold bearish factors—ADR listing good news already realized + profit-taking stampede + earnings concerns—have converged to smash the panic orders. After an extreme oversold condition, there may be a technical rebound in the short term, but the trend is not stable; don’t rush to bottom-fish.
Trading strategy:
Conservative: wait for a pullback to around 1300-1310 for a light long entry
Aggressive: go long around the current price of 1320
After the ADR halo fades, the market needs time to find a new valuation anchor.
#伯恩斯坦称存储牛市可持续至2027年 #SK海力士ADR指导价149美元