Can Bitcoin hit new all-time highs again?

Many readers are concerned about Bitcoin’s price movement after this. Today, we’ll talk about this question.

In October 2025, Bitcoin briefly surged to around $126,000. By July 2026, the price had fallen to about $64,000. In just half a year, it dropped roughly 49%, nearly halving. So, can Bitcoin set new highs again?

Based on Bitcoin’s past volatility, this is not unimaginable. But we need to pay attention to where the capital that pushes prices higher will come from.

Some people believe that since Bitcoin’s total supply is only 21 million coins while fiat currencies keep increasing, price growth over the long term is almost inevitable. But this view only discusses supply—it sidesteps a more important side of asset pricing: who is willing to buy, what money they use to buy, and why they would buy Bitcoin rather than purchasing US Treasuries, US stocks, or gold.

Bitcoin’s most compelling narrative is that it can become a form of money that does not rely on any sovereign nation.

Its issuance rules are written into the protocol, with a fixed supply cap that does not increase temporarily due to a widening fiscal deficit. It can be transferred across borders, and it also allows holders to keep their assets outside the traditional banking system. Bitcoin’s white paper originally proposed a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

However, while these attributes give Bitcoin monetary potential, they do not mean it is already a mature alternative currency.

In the real world, wages, taxes, rent, loans, and most goods are still priced in fiat currency. Most people who buy Bitcoin don’t plan to use it to pay for meals; they buy and wait to exchange it for more dollars in the future.

A mature currency must be able to more stably perform the functions of unit of account, medium of payment, and store of value. After a half-year drop of one half, Bitcoin currently finds it difficult to serve as a stable unit of account. While it does have payment functionality, it is still far from enough to support an independent currency cycle.

A cross-border crypto asset flow study by the Bank for International Settlements found that native crypto assets’ flows are mainly driven by speculative motives and global financing conditions, and that their trading use is mainly concentrated in stablecoins and small Bitcoin transfers.

Therefore, the more appropriate positioning at this stage is: Bitcoin is a highly volatile risk asset with non-sovereign currency aspirations and a highly constrained supply, but priced mainly by US-dollar liquidity and risk appetite.

This does not deny that it may gain stronger monetary attributes in the future. But for the current market, Bitcoin’s price first follows the funding dynamics of a risk asset.