Sharp drop followed by a weak rebound! 4050 is under pressure at this life-or-death line, as the focus turns to 4030!

On Friday’s late-session, gold surged to 4120 before stalling and falling back. In today’s Asia session, it has been consolidating and drifting lower; the low briefly tapped 4061, a key support level, before a slight rebound. It is currently trading around 4072. Overall, it is shaping up a downward pattern of “spike higher then pull back, with weaker rebound and continued pressure,” with bears dominating the market. 4050 is an important near-term line of defense for bulls, while 4080–4090 forms a strong resistance zone.

Technically, bearish signals are absolutely dominant: the TRIX trend indicator remains in a bearish crossover and continues moving lower; the MACD fast and slow lines remain below the 0 axis and keep extending bearish crossovers. Although the green momentum histogram has slightly contracted, there are no signs of a reversal. Bear momentum has not been fully eliminated, so rebound upside is extremely limited. The Bollinger Bands channel is opening downward, and gold continues to track along the lower Bollinger Band. The 4080 middle-band range forms strong pressure in the medium term. There is no indication of a Bollinger Bands closure/tightening turning into a breakout signal. The RSI has rebounded slightly from oversold conditions, but it failed to break above the 50 neutral line, making it difficult to form effective bullish momentum. Although 4061 support has seen a brief stabilization, the rebound strength is weak—this is only a technical weak repair and cannot change the downward trend.

Prudent setup: short on rebounds in the 4080–4100 zone and the 4125–4145 zone, targeting 4060–4040. If 4050 key support is effectively broken, add to the position and look for 4030–4020. Keep a close eye on whether 4000 support holds.
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