A brief analysis of BTC’s short-term走势 from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC
#btc 1. Dow Theory
Main trend (1-hour timeframe): The major downtrend from the May 6 historical high of 82,814 saw an important reversal on July 1. The price collapsed from 82,814 through the June 1 secondary high of 73,974 down to the July 1 low of 57,721, for a cumulative drop of 25,093. After the bottom on July 1, the bulls launched a strong counterattack; on July 10 the rebound reached 64,660 (a new high since July), but on July 11–12 the price pulled back to 63,751, breaking below the 64,000 integer level. Throughout July 12, the market traded narrowly in the 63,500–64,000 range, showing a weak pattern of “lower highs + slightly lower lows.” Current price 63,751 is below the main downtrend line, and resistance above 64,660 is extremely strong.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): Since the July 10 high of 64,660, a short-term downtrend is in progress. The short-term highs shifted down from 64,660 (7-10 13:45) to 64,453 (7-11 14:00) → 64,427 (7-11 15:00) → 64,386 (7-11 21:00) → 64,210 (7-12 08:00). The short-term lows moved down from 63,100 (7-10 04:45) to 63,964 (7-11 15:00) → 63,774 (7-11 23:00) → 63,577 (7-12 22:15). On July 12, the market showed “the highs dropped noticeably + the lows moved slightly lower,” and the short-term trend shifted from “pullback consolidation” to “bearish consolidation.”
Dow conclusion: The major trend is still a deep downtrend, with resistance above 64,660 extremely strong. The short-term trend has entered a bearish consolidation phase. 63,500 is the short-term lifeline; if it fails, it would open downside room of 62,500–61,500. If price can hold above 64,000 and break above 64,200, the short-term downtrend may temporarily ease, and rebound targets could be 64,400–64,660.
2. Chan Theory
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute chart, multiple valid top fractals and bottom fractals are marked.
Top fractals: Appearing at 64,660 (July 10 13:45), 64,453 (July 11 14:00), 64,427 (July 11 15:00), 64,386 (July 11 21:00), 64,210 (July 12 08:00), etc. The top fractals show a clear downward shift, moving from 64,660 into the 64,200 area, indicating that bearish power is steadily increasing.
Bottom fractals: Appearing at 63,100 (July 10 04:45), 63,964 (July 11 15:00), 63,774 (July 11 23:00), 63,577 (July 12 22:15), etc. The bottom fractals show a downward shift, moving from 63,100 into the 63,500 area, indicating that bullish follow-through intent is weakening.
Bi (strokes) and segments: From the top fractal at 64,210 to the bottom fractal at 63,577 (July 12 22:15), it forms a downward stroke with a drop of about 633, and the strength is weak. Previously, from the bottom fractal at 63,774 to the top fractal at 64,210 (July 12 08:00), it formed an upward stroke with a rise of about 436, with extremely weak strength. Even earlier, from the top fractal at 64,386 to the bottom fractal at 63,774 (July 11 23:00), it formed a downward stroke with a drop of about 612, and again the strength was weak. Each stroke’s range is less than 700, showing that bullish and bearish forces are at an extreme balance; however, the top fractals have continued shifting down from 64,660 to 64,210, meaning bearish power is gradually strengthening.
Central structure (zhongshu) zone: In the 63,500–64,500 range, between July 9–12 the candlesticks interweave densely, forming a choppy central structure in the sense of Chan Theory, and the price is running along the lower edge within this central zone. Current price 63,751 is positioned toward the lower edge inside this central structure, belonging to the downward probing phase after the construction of the central structure.
Chan conclusion: The upward stroke is extremely weak (+436) while the downward stroke is somewhat weak (-633), indicating that bullish and bearish forces are extremely balanced but bears have a slight edge. Currently it is in the downward probing phase after the construction of a central structure. In the short term, watch whether an effective bottom fractal can form near 63,500; if it forms, the upward stroke may restart. If price breaks directly below 63,500, the downward stroke extends, targeting 62,500–61,500.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the May 6 high of 82,814 is divided into wave shapes, showing a typical structure of “a completed five-wave decline at a higher degree + the ABC rebound’s C wave ending”:
1st wave (violent drop): From 82,814 to the 78,500 area (May 7), about -4,300.
2nd wave (rebound): From 78,500 rebounds to 81,051 (May 10), about +2,551.
3rd wave (main down wave): From 81,051 plunges to 59,095 (June 5), about -21,956. This is the most damaging main down wave.
4th wave (rebound): From 59,095 rebounds to 67,247 (June 15), about +8,152. The 4th wave rebound strength is moderate.
5th wave (ending the violent drop): From 67,247 plunges to 57,721 (July 1), about -9,526. The 5th wave’s magnitude is about 0.4 times the total drop of waves 1–3, and it is a typical ending wave.
A wave (rebound): From 57,721 rebounds to 64,597 (July 6), about +6,876. The A-wave rebound is strong and has already reached the 0.618 retracement level of the 5th-wave drop.
B wave (pullback): From 64,597 pulls back to 61,470 (July 8 15:15), about -3,127. The B-wave pullback magnitude is about 45.5% of the A-wave, which is a typical medium-depth pullback.
C wave (ending): From 61,470 rebounds to 64,660 (July 10 13:45), about +3,190. The C wave has unfolded but is blocked at 64,660 and failed to effectively break the A-wave high of 64,597 (only +63). In addition, the market continued to fall on July 11–12, suggesting the C wave may already have ended. The current drop from 64,660 to 63,751 totals 909; the probability of C-wave ending is extremely high.
Wave conclusion: The market is in the C-wave ending stage of an ABC rebound after the completion of a five-wave decline. The C wave’s strength is limited and it has already started pulling back; the ABC rebound may already be fully over. If price can hold above 64,000 and rebound to 64,200, the C wave may extend; if price breaks below 63,500, the ABC rebound is confirmed ended, and a new round of decline may begin.
4. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: During the July 1 crash phase, there were extremely clear “expansion in volume” traits; after panic sell-offs surged, volume quickly contracted. In the July 1–10 rebound phase, trading volume expanded moderately, showing orderly entry of bullish capital. On July 11–12, throughout the day, trading was narrowly range-bound in 63,500–64,200 with a significant drop in volume, indicating both bulls and bears are watching and the market is waiting for direction selection. Overall it forms a neutral volume-price combination of “crash with heavy volume + base-building with low volume + rebound with heavy volume + pullback consolidation with low volume.”
Key volume-price nodes:
On July 1 at 01:00, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (volume at the 850 million level), dropping from 60,000 to 57,721, with a body of about 2,279; it confirms that panic sell-offs concentrated and surged, forming a stage bottom.
On July 6 at 21:00, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at the 450 million level), pushing up from 63,000 to 64,597, with a body of about 1,597; it confirms the A-wave topping.
On July 10 at 13:45, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at the 210 million level), pushing up from 64,000 to 64,660, with a body of about 662; it confirms the C-wave topping.
On July 12 at 08:00, a low-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at the 80 million level), rising from 63,700 to 64,210, with a body of about 510; it confirms that bullish power has exhausted.
On July 12 at 22:15, a low-volume bearish candle appeared (volume at the 60 million level), falling from 63,900 to 63,577, with a body of about 323; it confirms that bearish power is weak.
Last 10 15-minute candlesticks: Price oscillated and rebounded from 63,577 to 63,751, with trading volume showing an extremely low-volume pattern; the market is highly cautious in the 63,500–63,900 range.
Volume-price conclusion: Throughout July 12, the market consolidated with extremely low volume, showing both bulls and bears are waiting for direction selection. Price has repeatedly contested around 63,700, but with extremely suppressed volume, which is a neutral volume-price signal. Key observation points: If a rebound to 64,000–64,200 is accompanied by a high-volume breakout, the C wave may extend. If a downside break below 63,500 occurs again with expansion in volume, the ABC rebound confirmation ends.
5. Order Flow
Volume distribution (Volume Profile): The volume control point (POC) over the last 5 days is at 64,102. This is the most densely traded area between buyers and sellers, forming the most important value-area central structure right now. Current price 63,751 is about 351 below the POC, indicating a slight discount state below the value area (Below Value).
Position analysis: Price 63,751 is below the POC 64,102, meaning it is below the value area (Below Value) with a relatively small deviation. In order-flow theory, price below the POC implies that sellers are slightly dominant in the short term, and the market is in a mild discount state. Current price is moving toward the lower edge of the Value Area at 61,870; 64,000 is short-term resistance, and 63,500 is short-term support.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
64,000–64,500: Overhead resistance HVN (July 10–11 dense trading zone, currently strong resistance)
63,000–64,000: Core support HVN (July 9–12 dense trading zone, currently support)
62,000–63,000: Secondary support HVN (July 7–8 dense trading zone)
59,000–60,000: Extreme support HVN (July 1 dense trading zone)
Delta analysis (bottom sub-chart): Delta estimates show that during the July 1 01:00 violent drop, Delta turned sharply negative (around the -6 billion level), confirming active sell orders dominated. During the July 10 13:45 C-wave spike, Delta turned slightly positive (around the +1.5 billion level), confirming that any active buying near 64,000 was limited. Throughout July 12, Delta oscillated near the zero line, indicating extreme balance between bulls and bears. Current Delta MA12 has fallen from positive territory back to near the zero axis (-2M), showing buyer strength is weakening and seller strength is starting to take a slight lead.
Order flow conclusion: Price is below POC 64,102, so sellers are slightly dominant in the short term and the market is in a mild discount state. Overhead 64,000 and 64,200 are two key HVN resistance levels; if Delta keeps turning positive and a volume-backed breakout occurs at these levels, an upside attempt toward 64,400 is possible. If Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 63,500, the ABC rebound confirmation ends.
6. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:
Strong resistance: 82,814 (stage high), 73,974 (June 1 high), 67,500 (June 15 rebound high), 64,660 (July 10 rebound high)
Key resistance: 65,000 (psychological level), 64,400 (upper edge of the July 12 consolidation zone), 64,000 (integer level)
Key support: 63,500 (lower edge of the July 12 consolidation zone), 63,577 (July 12 closing-session low), 63,000 (integer level), 62,404 (July 9 pullback low), 61,470 (July 8 crash low), 60,000 (integer level), 57,721 (July 1 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
On July 1 at 01:00, a large bearish candle with an extremely long lower wick appeared (body about -2,279, lower wick about 1,500). After dropping from 60,000 to 57,721, it rebounded to 59,200, forming a “hammer” bottom pattern.
On July 10 at 13:45, a bullish candle with a long upper wick appeared (body about +662, upper wick about 200). After pushing from 64,000 to 64,660, it fell back to 64,400, forming a “shooting star” bearish pattern, showing heavy sell pressure above 64,600.
On July 12 at 08:00, a low-volume bullish candle appeared (body about +510), rising from 63,700 to 64,210, showing bullish power exhaustion.
On July 12 at 22:15, a low-volume bearish candle appeared (body about -323), falling from 63,900 to 63,577, showing that bearish power is weak.
Trend structure:
Short term: Since July 10’s 64,660, a descending channel is forming; the lower-track support is around 63,500, and the upper-track resistance is around 64,200.
Medium term: The downtrend line since May 6’s 82,814 is still valid; price has not broken through that trend line yet.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, the market is in the weak consolidation area after the end of the C wave. 63,500 is the short-term bullish defense line, and 64,000 is the pivot between bulls and bears: a break could cause the C wave to extend, with targets at 64,200–64,400; if it is lost, price may retrace in the 63,000–62,500 range.
综合研判
Dow Theory signals that the main trend is still a deep decline and resistance above 64,660 is extremely strong; the short-term trend is in a weak consolidation phase, with key levels at 64,000 (up) and 63,500 (down). Chan Theory shows the upward stroke is extremely weak (+436) and the downward stroke is relatively weak (-633); currently it is in the downward probing phase after the central structure is built. Elliott Wave Theory confirms that the five-wave decline is complete and the ABC rebound’s C wave may have ended at 64,660. The volume-price relationship shows a neutral signal of “extreme low-volume consolidation throughout the day.” Order flow shows POC at 64,102, with price below POC at a slight discount, and Delta MA12 falling back near the zero axis. Price action shows the “shooting star” + “low-volume bullish candle” + “low-volume bearish candle” pattern: extreme balance between bulls and bears in the short term, but bears have a slight edge.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
Bullish-leaning scenario: If price shows a low-volume stop of the sell-off + a bottom fractal near 63,500–63,800, and Delta turns positive, you could consider going long; targets 64,000 → 64,200 → 64,400; stop loss 63,200.
Bearish-leaning scenario: If price rebounds to 64,000–64,200 and forms a top fractal with a high-volume sell-off, confirming the ABC rebound has ended and a new round of decline begins, you could take a short; targets 63,500 → 62,500; stop loss 64,600.
Current status: 63,751 is in the weak consolidation zone after the end of the C wave, with extreme balance between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a break above 64,200 to confirm C-wave extension before chasing, or wait for a breakdown below 63,500 to confirm the ABC rebound has ended before chasing shorts.