Ahead of the CPI, BTC has been consolidating around $64k; three layers of variables—geopolitics, macro, and regulation—are hitting at full intensity

I. Macro: A week of “super data” begins; Waller ushers in his first congressional hearing
This week is truly a “super data” week. On July 14 at 20:30, the U.S. will release June CPI, followed at 22:00 by Federal Reserve Chair Waller’s first appearance as chair at a congressional hearing. On July 15, China’s Q2 GDP and the U.S. PPI will be released. On July 16, the Fed will publish the Beige Book.
The Fed’s semiannual report has already acknowledged that spring inflation has reignited, and lists ongoing upside pressure driven by the Russia-Iran conflict pushing up oil prices, as well as structural demand inflation from the expansion of AI computing power. CME data shows the rate-hike probability for July is only 24%, but if CPI comes in above expectations + Waller’s hawkish remarks, this number could jump quickly.

II. Geopolitics: The Strait of Hormuz is shut; U.S. troops carry out four rounds of strikes in a week
On the 12th, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed starting immediately. The U.S. military then launched a new round of strikes—this is the fourth Iran strike within the week. Parties still disagree on their stances: Trump said the strait “remains open,” while Iran insists on keeping it closed.

III. BTC: Ranging at $64k—$65k is the real exam
BTC is currently around $64,200, with a Fear & Greed Index of 26. Since rebounding from the June low of $57,800, it has formed an upward channel, and has made higher highs and higher lows for two straight weeks.
The key resistance overhead is $64,500-$65,000. This zone has repeatedly capped rallies; if it breaks, the next level to watch is $67,000. The demand zone below is $63,620-$63,700; if it fails, look for $61,000-$62,000.

IV. Major event: Key vote this week for the CLARITY Act
The revised CLARITY Act is expected to be submitted to the Senate for consideration as early as this week, with August 7 as a hard deadline. If passed, it would become the first U.S. federal regulatory framework for digital assets.

V. Conclusion
CPI, Waller’s hearing, GDP, the Beige Book, the CLARITY Act, and the Strait of Hormuz—six-layer variables are stacking densely. Ranging near $64k is not direction; it’s calm before the storm. Watch for a break above $65,000, and support near $63,600. Watch more, act less—wait for the data to land.

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