Escalation in the war at the Strait of Hormuz: Iranian missiles sweep across the Gulf, and multiple countries have further announced actions and the closure.

Author: Xiao Yanyan, Jin10 Data

U.S. and Iranian forces launched fierce mutual attacks with missiles and drones last Sunday. Tehran said it targeted U.S. military facilities across the Gulf by multiple countries, and claimed it had shut again the Strait of Hormuz, which it says has strategic importance.

The strike was the latest round in a series of attacks and counterattacks between Iran and the U.S. over control of shipping through the strait. However, this round of intensive attacks showed clear escalation in both pace and scope.

Reuters reported that the attack range expanded to Qatar—a country that had not been hit since April and has been a mediator in ceasefire talks; while the United Arab Emirates, which had not been targeted since early May, said its air defense systems intercepted missiles and drones from Iran.

On Sunday afternoon local time, Iranian media reported missile strikes and explosions around Abbas Port and nearby Qeshm Island. The port is located along the strait and hosts military facilities. It was reported that U.S. forces launched another round of attacks, while Iran also directed its targets at Kuwait. Abbas Port is one of Iran’s main naval bases, and Qeshm Island has facilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The latest burst of violence further undermined the prospects for the interim Iran-U.S. agreement signed last month. The deal aims to reopen the strait and end the war after 60 more days of negotiations.

In the past week, U.S. President Trump said he believed the ceasefire was over, but he also did not completely close the door to further talks. On the local time 12th, Trump said that the U.S. carried out a “devastating strike” on Iran the previous evening.

In an interview that day, Trump said that the day before, both sides of the Iran-U.S. had reached an agreement; Iran “was originally prepared to give up everything,” but a ship was hit by a drone attack a few hours later. There are differences in views among all parties regarding the situation of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said, “For the United States, the Strait of Hormuz is still open.”

On Monday, WTI crude oil futures rose more than 3% in early trading, breaking above $73 per barrel. Spot gold opened lower by about $20, falling below $4,100 per ounce. As of the time of writing, spot silver was down more than 2% on the day, at $58.65 per ounce.

Intensive strikes

Iran has been seeking to establish a permanent, charge-based system for the strait and warned that vessels may not sail without its authorization.

Iran said late Saturday that it had closed the waterway after firing warning shots at a ship traveling on an unauthorized route. On Sunday, Iran said it had disabled a second vessel from navigating.

India said that an Indian citizen was missing after an attack off the coast of Oman on the container ship “GFS Galaxy” (“GFS 银河号”). Oman said it had rescued 23 crew members. Qatar urged all ships, including leisure boats, fishing vessels, and water scooters, to suspend operations.

The Persian Gulf Strait Management Authority, recently set up by Iran, said on Sunday that it cannot allow passage through the strait at present due to “recent illegal activities by U.S. military forces in the region.” The agency said “once stability and calm are restored,” it will issue passage permits.

The United States previously revoked licenses that allowed Iran to sell its crude oil after ships were attacked. The U.S. said that despite Iran’s so-called “aggression, harassment, threats, and unilateral statements,” U.S. forces have been deployed to defend freedom of navigation.

The U.S. statement says: “Iran does not control the strait. Passage is proceeding normally.”

The Joint Maritime Information Center, led by the U.S. Navy, reiterated its guidance that although there are serious security threats, the “expanded” southern route near Oman remains available for two-way transit.

On Saturday, the U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces struck 140 Iranian military targets, and within the past three nights, they had already struck more than 300 targets, “to weaken Iran’s ability to attack civilian seafarers and merchant ships transiting freely through the strait.”

Iranian state media reported explosions in multiple port cities and said an Iranian officer was killed in an attack.

In response, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said they destroyed a U.S.-allied command-and-control center and a drone hangar inside Jordan, attacked a U.S. radar site, then attacked the rocket launch system inside Kuwait, struck U.S. aircraft carrier support and refueling platforms in Oman, and destroyed a jet aircraft maintenance center and command facilities inside Qatar.

Iran said: “Keep your promise—or pay the price”

Qatar previously said it would not serve as a mediator as long as it itself was under attack. Qatar said three people, including a child, were injured by falling shrapnel, and said Iran bears full legal responsibility for the attack.

The UAE said it detected missile threats beyond its borders, Bahrain said it intercepted Iranian air attacks multiple times, Jordan reported being hit by missile attacks, and Oman reported a drone attack. Kuwait’s military then reported that the attack caused losses and said an oil drilling platform was hit, injuring a worker.

Oman said it has summoned the Iranian ambassador to lodge a protest over drone attacks in the two regions, while the U.S. Embassy in Oman told its nationals in Duqm and Musandam to shelter in place.

Before the latest round of hostilities, Iran’s Foreign Minister Aragchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi held talks in Oman last Saturday. Iran said the talks were intended to coordinate arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz and would continue with Qatar’s participation.

According to the Iranian semi-official news agency Tasnim, Aragchi later called Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to discuss developments in the region. Pakistan has been a key mediator between the U.S. and Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran’s chief negotiator Ali Kalibaf posted on the X platform on Sunday, writing: “The era of unilateral deals is over. We told you: keep your promise—or pay the price. Reality is knocking at the door.”