BTC drops sharply by 0.61% in 15 minutes: Rising US-Iran conflict triggers short-term safe-haven selling

From 00:30 to 00:45 on July 13, 2026 (UTC), BTC quickly fell by 0.61% within 15 minutes. The price ranged from 63,572.3 to 64,202.5 USDT, with a volatility of 0.98%. Previously, over the past 24 hours, BTC had risen by about 0.54% to $64,146, and market attention has shifted toward geopolitical risk.

The main driving force behind this move is the rapid escalation of the US-Iran military conflict. The United States launched a new round of airstrike attacks against Iran, targeting missile launch sites and communication facilities. Iran immediately retaliated with missiles and drones, striking Gulf states including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, and shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz faces a serious threat. Geopolitical risk spillover drove oil prices up by about 3%, but BTC failed to maintain support in a flight-to-safety sentiment; instead, a sell-off appeared in the short term.

Second, the market’s reaction appears relatively restrained, likely due to several factors aligning: first, the rally was moderate and there was no significant increase in trading volume, meaning bargain-hunt/defensive buying had not formed a trend-driven force; second, technical indicators turned more bearish and strengthened sell pressure— the 15-minute moving average signaled bearish, the 1-hour MACD formed a dead cross, and order-book liquidity was extremely thin (only 1 level of depth). Buy and sell walls clustered around $64,145, indicating high price sensitivity; third, there are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the inflation outlook. The June CPI expectation year-over-year is 4.2%, and macro uncertainty has weakened long positions’ confidence.

There are still volatility risks. Key things to watch include whether the US-Iran conflict further escalates, whether the Strait of Hormuz is substantively blocked, and the release of the June CPI data. For near-term support, focus on the $63,672 area; resistance is at $64,433. In an environment with extremely thin order-book depth, large orders can trigger sharp volatility. It is recommended to monitor how trading volume confirms and to pay attention to the daily MACD signal, while staying cautious toward short-term market movements.