Last week, Bitcoin tried three times to probe the $65,000 resistance level, but to no avail—the rally has already started to look weak.

It’s likely that over the next two days, unless some sudden positive catalyst emerges, we should see a solid pullback.

In addition, the June CPI data that we’ve been watching closely is right around the corner. After the U.S. and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire memorandum of understanding, international oil prices quickly gave back the risk premium. The market generally expects this month’s data to slow down somewhat. That’s also why, on this logic, we bought the dip at 58,000 and grabbed a round of benefits from it.

However, after entering July, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse. The U.S. military has launched large-scale strikes against Iran for multiple consecutive days, with the strike scale at roughly 4 to 5 times that of late June. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has basically come to a standstill. The memorandum has been in place for less than a month, and both sides have already launched multiple rounds of reciprocal attacks.

If the conflict continues, inflation could rise again. In other words, when tomorrow’s CPI data comes out, the market’s interpretation may become even more complicated. It won’t just be a question of “how much inflation has slowed in the past,” but also “how much future conflict will push inflation higher.”

Our current short-selling logic hasn’t changed. Next, we’ll act according to the data when the timing is right #美伊战争阴云再起 $BTC