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BOC Securities: The short-term equilibrium won’t change the long-term growth main trend

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CITIC Securities stated in a note that this week’s market discussion about whether “growth versus value” has shifted is heating up. Our conclusion is: the fundamental K-shaped divergence has not been reversed, and the conditions for a style reversal are not sufficient. On one hand, cloud provider capital expenditures are still in an upward channel, global semiconductor sales continue to expand, and together they indicate that the AI industry trend is still moving higher. On the other hand, the recovery in the cyclical outlook for traditional economic sectors depends heavily on policy efforts, while current macro policy still focuses on “strengthening the fundamentals and fostering development,” with both the urgency and room for aggregate stimulus remaining limited. Therefore, traditional sectors lack systematic earnings upside elasticity. As a result, the earnings advantage of growth over relative value is still present, and the logic for a complete style switch does not hold. The market is currently in a period of consolidation and range-bound trading, not a turning point from bull to bear. (Yicai)
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