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🇯🇵 Look at the bottom panel of this chart. That is the sharpest single-day move in Japan's bond market after April 2025's shock.
10Y JGB hit a 30-year high near 2.90% Thursday. Reversed 16bps to 2.71% by Friday. The 30Y fell 13bps the same day.
The actual trigger wasn't fiscal spending. A draft government blueprint dropped explicit language on BOJ independence, and bond traders read that as the government wanting influence over rate decisions.
Katayama's fix: publicly pushing GPIF, the world's largest pension fund at $1.8 trillion, to increase domestic holdings. GPIF's board doesn't answer to the Finance Ministry. Katayama admitted it herself; this isn't something she can decide alone.
Markets rallied on the signal anyway. $1.8 trillion in expected behavior has moved without a single dollar actually being reallocated yet.