2026.7.13 Price Movement Forecast and Trading Entry Strategy (for personal study and post-review only)

Trend analysis: 1. Consolidation builds up energy and breaks upward, with a mid-term target of BTC 660, ETH 1980-2030 (75%)

Tonight into tomorrow continues 639-645 (1800-1830) narrow-range grinding, then tomorrow morning retest 636-639 (1795-1800) to hold; increase in volume for a breakout of 645 (1830). First target 652 (1860); ultimate mid-term target 660 (1980-2030).

2. Mild and deeper shakeout followed by a rally (20%)

Tomorrow morning the opening directly dips to 631-635 (1786-1795) — the lifeline range. Quickly form longer lower wicks and stop the fall; after the shakeout is done, continue higher. The endpoint still looks at 660.

3. Effective breakdown of the mid-term lifeline turns weak (5%)

Two consecutive 4H body closes below 631 (1791). The medium-term upward structure is damaged. Downside first target 625-624 (1760), second target 618.

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Open positions strategy:

1. Long positions:

BTC: Retest 636-639 and hold; after a 15-min close with a lower-wick stoppage candle, and MACD green bars rapidly shrink. Stop loss: 630 (below the 4H MA60 lifeline; avoid the risk of a deep shakeout breaking down). Take profit: 645 — scale out. After a volume breakout of 645, look for 651-660; if it doesn’t break, exit all positions.

ETH: 1796-1803 holds; in a 15-min close, a lower-wick stoppage candle. Stop loss: 1755 (below the 4H MA60; completely avoid the trend going bad). Layered take profit: if it breaks 1830, hold for 1855-1860; if it doesn’t break, take profit and exit all.

2. Short positions:

BTC: On a rebound to 644-646 where it stalls. In a 15-min chart, a long upper-wick bearish candle; RSI turns down. Stop loss: 647 (above the prior high; prevent a bullish volume breakout reversal). Take profit: 639 — close all; only do night-time range trading.

ETH: On a rebound 1828~1830 where it stalls. In a 15-min chart, a long upper-wick bearish candle. Stop loss: 1839 (above the prior high; prevent the bulls reversing and strengthening). Close near 1802.

If on Monday’s open it holds firmly above 1830, all short positions stop out and exit; stop the “holding through” operation.

SanDisk (flash):

1. Retest holds and repair rally (70%): Short-term retest 1937-1940 support to stop the fall, recover above the 1951 moving average, and retest the prior high 1959. Mid-term targets unchanged: 2050 2150.

2. Deep retest and 4H support shakeout (25%): Directly dip to the 1900 round-number level, with extreme needle pokes near 1880 (4H Bollinger middle band). After completing the shakeout, it reverses upward again.

3. Breaks effectively below 1821 to go short (5% low probability): If consecutive 4H body closes stay below 1821, this upward trend of the current cycle ends completely. Downside target near 1700.

Micron:

1. Weak and choppy downward (78%): 973-981 repeatedly oscillate; when the rebound touches 981, it gets capped and falls back. Downside first target 953, second target 930.

2. Mild rebound repair (17%): Retrace to 973 support for short-term repair; highest rebound near 990 hits resistance and drops back. Only a bear-side rebound repair; it doesn’t change the bigger bearish situation.

3. Breakout with volume above 1003 to reverse and strengthen (5% very low probability): Needs positive news to drive incremental capital; currently, bullish momentum on the market is completely absent.