🔥 Bitcoin is nearing a power-law support line, but there is no rebound catalyst

Bitcoin’s price is moving close to a power-law support line first tracked by Fidelity since 2015. Fidelity’s Global Macro Director called this area an accumulation zone, but clearly noted that there is currently a lack of rebound catalysts. This line has historically served as a bear-market bottom multiple times, but this time the market structure is more complex.

Near-term holder sell pressure is indeed easing. CryptoQuant data shows buyer power is slightly ahead, but the scale of ETF inflows is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. After eight consecutive weeks of outflows, only $197.4 million returned. Institutional demand has not truly come back.

More importantly, the total market cap of stablecoins shrank by $7.7 billion in June, the largest monthly drop since the Terra collapse. USDT and USDC combined fell by about $13 billion, with on-chain liquidity being pulled out. Funding rates are elevated, and the market has returned to a clearly bearish stance.

Bitcoin has been consolidating for 307 days, the third-longest period in history. The support line, easing sell pressure, and long-term holders accumulating are positive signals, but there are no clear macro or on-chain catalyst events. If US stock tech keeps pulling back (the Nasdaq-100’s nearly half of its constituents are down more than 20% from their highs), the crypto market may face structural capital outflows.

The risk is that continued stablecoin shrinkage implies weak willingness for funds to enter from outside the market. If Bitcoin breaks below $63k, the liquidation strength of long positions on major CEXs will reach $423 million, potentially worsening the downside. A power-law support line is not magic—it needs capital and sentiment to truly form a bottom.
$btc #usdt #usdc #defi # stablecoin