A geopolitical powder keg + the Federal Reserve policy pivot window—will this week’s macro data provide a direction?

Compilation: GaryMa, Wu Says Blockchain

Summary

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve launched a reassessment of its monetary policy framework. The meeting minutes showed that disagreements within the institution still remain. U.S. employment data stayed stable, inflation pressures in the Eurozone intensified, and China’s June CPI fell. This week, the main focus will be on U.S. inflation indicators such as CPI and PPI, as well as the Fed’s semiannual monetary policy report.

Weekly Review

Over the past week, tensions between the U.S. and Iran flared again with fierce exchanges around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran attacked multiple merchant ships and announced a blockade of the strait. The U.S. then carried out consecutive airstrikes on Iranian missiles, drones, naval assets, and communications facilities. Iran, in turn, struck U.S. military targets in Gulf countries including Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain with missiles and drones. Trump announced that the previous ceasefire had ended. Although both sides still kept in contact through channels such as Oman, the conflict had clearly spilled over, and risks to global shipping and energy supply rose further.

The Federal Reserve announced the establishment of five independent working groups, to continue…