7.13 Gold Strategy: Next Week’s Outlook—Gold Dips and Rebounds! After a V-Reversal, Where to Next?

Last week, gold played out a roller-coaster. The price slid from the 4202 high, falling to a low near the 4021 level, with the single-day maximum drop exceeding $180. Then bulls launched a strong comeback and produced a textbook V-shaped reversal. The price has now rebounded to around 4119. In the short term, bearish momentum has been released somewhat, and the market has entered a new phase of a long-versus-short tug-of-war.

From the news side, the Fed’s June meeting minutes released hawkish signals. Officials generally worry about sticky inflation, and expectations for rate cuts this year were broadly scaled back. The probability of a 25bp hike in September has risen to 56%. As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.48%, hitting a two-week high. The U.S. Dollar Index has held above the 101 level. Gold is under clear pressure as a non-yielding asset. On top of that, gold ETFs saw cumulative outflows of over 80 tons in the past three months, and fund flows remain bearish.

From the technical side, on the 2-hour timeframe, after forming a short-term double bottom at 4021, gold has surged higher and has already recovered more than half of the losses. Resistance overhead is in the 4133-4202 pressure zone. If it can break above 4133 effectively, it may be able to restart an upward move. Support lies in the 4063-4021 range. In the short term, moving averages are turning upward and a MACD golden cross has formed, so rebound momentum is still there—but investors should watch for the risk of a second dip.

Trading reference: Consider placing staggered short orders in the 4120-4140 range on the rebound, with targets at 4100 and 4050. $XAUT