With the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s energy “throat” has been squeezed tighter again. In the early hours of July 12, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced that the strait was “temporarily closed.” In the past 24 hours, only 11 merchant ships have passed, and transit volume has fallen to 10% of last year’s average. What’s interesting is that the two sides’ narratives clash—Iran’s Persian Gulf Authority bluntly said “passage is currently not possible,” while the U.S. Central Command countered that “the southern navigation channel is still open,” and Trump also echoed, shouting that “the strait is open.”

The market reaction is highly split: Brent ($CL ) is up 3.10% in the over-the-counter market, and New York crude ($BZ ) is up 3.27%; in crypto, BTC is down 0.6%, SOL is down more than 2%, and XLM has dropped 4%. The logic is also simple: the line where oil shipping routes well around the Cape of Good Hope and VLCC freight rates jump higher. Frontline (FRO, U.S.-listed oil shipping) and pure energy exposure plays like XOM are the most straightforward short-term beneficiaries.

📈 In the short term, I expect oil prices and oil shipping to move upward, while crypto continues to face pressure. But the risks need to be made clear: first, the U.S.-Iran messaging is diverging, and negotiations could ease at any time—oil prices could give back sharply; second, the southern navigation channel is actually still operating, so the so-called “blockade” isn’t all it’s cracked up to be; third, if a misjudgment escalates and spills over to UAE/Saudi shore tank farms, it becomes an entirely different story—don’t put everything on at once.