Break down the full hype route of the commercial space industry

Friday’s market showed very strong divergence. In the morning, semiconductors and computing power continued Thursday’s uptrend; in the afternoon, a number of heavyweight stocks saw heavy-volume selloffs. Then, right after that, news fermentation around the launch-and-sea recovery of Long March 10 (Yì) triggered an across-the-board surge in commercial aerospace, with 25 stocks hitting the daily limit up across the whole day. However, the market’s disagreements were substantial: within sectors, many targets surged and then fell back, and the intraday consecutive-limit-up (lianban) promotion rate dropped directly to zero. The top performer of the day saw its streak break after eight consecutive limit-ups. Funds collectively rotated from high-level tech into low-level thematic plays. [Taoguba]

This time, Long March 10 (Yì) is the world’s first net-based recovery solution, which eliminates the heavy landing legs. The sea recovery tolerance is significantly improved, and single-launch costs can be notably reduced. Domestically, there are already hundreds of thousands of low-orbit satellites waiting for network deployment. Previously, operations were constrained by launch capacity. A reusable rocket can precisely address the core bottleneck. But currently it has only completed engineering tests; a sub-orbital first flight attempt will be conducted by the end of the year. It is still about a two-year cycle away from large-scale commercial use.

The entire industry and market action can be divided into three stages:
Short-term sentiment phase (right now): message-driven theme speculation. Priority goes to rocket supporting special materials, aerospace fastening hardware, and recovery supporting equipment. Front-row stocks have more upside elasticity; back-row followers mostly show only a pulse, with fast fulfillment.
Mid-term realization phase (reusable flight test by year-end): if the test goes smoothly, the satellite bus and communication payloads will see a second wave of market action, with expectations for mass networking for Qianfan and Star Network constellations.
Long-term earnings phase (2027–2028): high-density launches land in practice. Space computing power, aerospace operations and maintenance, and high-end manufacturing components gradually translate into earnings.

Sector-by-sector layering:
① Rocket upstream (the most sustainable): stainless steel storage tanks, friction stir welding, non-destructive testing, aerospace 3D printing. After recovery, the rocket bodies are frequently inspected, repaired, and parts replaced—demand remains stable long term.
② Satellite links: satellite manufacturing, on-board power, RF communications, special cables. Low-orbit satellite volume increases directly benefit.
③ Supporting auxiliaries: sea recovery platforms, special propellants, aerospace inspection equipment.
④ Longer-term themes: space computing power, space tourism, satellite applications. In the short term there is insufficient earnings support, suitable only for short-term trading bets.

Need to remind: in line with SpaceX’s development pace, recovery technology landing does not equal immediate profitability. Even if the industry logic is smooth, it’s hard for premium on back-row follower stocks in the short term to be sustained. Don’t blindly chase the highs.

Reviewing the mixed multi-sided messages over the weekend:
1、Geopolitical risk escalates: multiple rounds of clashes between the US and Iran, disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, suppressing overall market risk appetite;
2、Storage segment differentiation: SK Hynix and Micron have both successively released expectations of price increases. Institutions expect shortages to continue through 2030. Long-storage enterprises are advancing IPOs, but on Friday, the computing-power heavyweight segment saw large capital outflows, and short-term adjustment pressure is not small;
3、Industry meetings are frequent: next week’s World AI Conference and an air-low-altitude economy expo later in the month are held one after another, providing event catalysts for humanoid robots and computing hardware;
4、Policy and raw materials: the State Council executive meeting steps up national computing network construction; the Ministry of Commerce controls helium exports. Helium is a chip and aerospace-demand essential raw material;
5、Earnings-window start: multiple companies in storage, computing power, and non-ferrous metals have pre-announced sharply increased earnings; sectors such as hog farming have pre-announced losses—earnings differentiation in the market is clear;
6、Pharmaceutical side-line is resilient: overseas authorization scale for innovative drugs rises significantly; when there is divergence in technology, capital tends to show inertia toward pharmaceutical risk-hedging.

On Friday, the market characteristics are clear: a game among incremental funds, with weak single-day hotspot persistence; most themes are basically one-day wonder.

Computing power and storage belong to long-term sectors, but short-term positioning has loosened. Commercial aerospace is an event-driven short-term行情, with tracking value mainly limited to front-row sub-sectors. Innovative drugs, as a stable defensive direction, are suitable for long-term observation.

My personal recap and observation approach is for personal thinking only:
1、View commercial aerospace through layers: prioritize sub-sectors with rocket-body materials and satellite payload rigid demand. Back-row pure-theme followers should take timely profit and exit, then wait for the year-end reusable flight test’s second window.
2、For storage and computing power, the medium-to-long-term logic remains unchanged, but short-term capital outflows are obvious. Wait for a volume-contracted stabilization before considering follow-up tracking.
3、Innovative medicine as a defensive side-line can remain under long-term observation;

Feel free to like this article—wishing you a red week ahead!