Analysis: BTC regaining $70,700 is the primary signal of a trend shift, and some long-term investors have already accumulated positions at lower levels

BlockBeats News, July 12, analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin’s long-term trading below the short-term holder (STH) cost basis is a typical feature of each bear market cycle—currently, BTC has been running below this level for more than 9 months. The STH cost basis is currently at $70,700, continuously acting as a resistance level. In May, Bitcoin attempted to test the area near around $82,000, only to then experience a pullback. Since then, the STH cost basis has fallen noticeably, indicating that some investors have been accumulating at lower levels, pulling down their own average cost basis; however, as of now, the price has not yet been able to effectively hold above this key level.

The analysis believes that continuously reclaiming the STH cost basis will be the first positive signal. Bitcoin is currently consolidating in the $59,000 to $64,000 range, with still a clear distance from the resistance at $70,700. If, going forward, it can effectively break through and hold that level, it would mean that the overall short-term holder cohort has moved out of the unrealized loss state, and market sentiment could shift from bear-market defense to structural repair; conversely, if it continues to face resistance, the STH cost basis will keep moving lower, and the bear-market bottoming cycle may be extended further.