Key battle points (technical analysis)

· Current battlefield: $60,000 - $61,000. This was a key support zone earlier; now it has flipped into a “high-pressure zone,” and multiple attempts to push higher have failed to hold.
· Lower defense line: Falling below $59,200** may trigger further downside. The first line of defense is at **$58,035**; if it breaks, price could slide toward $55,500.
· Upside room: Only a strong breakout of the $62,600-$63,700 area could truly restore market confidence.

📉 Market sentiment and liquidity (cautious bias)

· Capital outflows: In June, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $4 billion. The absence of institutional buy-side demand is one of the biggest current pressures.
· Macro negatives: The market’s expectation that there will be a rate hike in December is already as high as 80%. A high-interest-rate environment is very unfriendly to Bitcoin with zero yield.
· Polymarket bets: Prediction market data shows that by tonight’s settlement, the probability of BTC holding $60,000 is only about 52.5%, basically a “coin-flip” situation. $BTC ‌