On the 13th, what is your view on the violent offensive approach in commercial space?

Like first, then watch; limit-up keeps coming[Taozi Bar]

Intro:

On Thursday afternoon, a surge in AI-related stocks drove the indices to print a big bullish candle. Out there, a whole bunch of bloggers are all bullish on AI, claiming it will stop falling and reverse, and that the indices will go up too. I’ve seen many of them hype it like that.

I’ll give you a little spoiler in the public section: on Friday, they need someone to stand guard. And it should basically be only me (see the pictures).

I’ve always had a question I can’t figure out. Readers—can you help me understand why some bloggers’ replays are a complete mess and their accuracy is so poor? They talk vaguely; after the fact they hype themselves up as being so awesome, but there’s not a single shred of evidence. How can they still generate that much hype? What’s the reason?

The most valuable feedback I got is this: they write things too profound, so you can’t understand their replay. In other words, I can’t accept why they’re bullish on this stock and why they’re bullish on this sector. Their logic is something I can’t comprehend or approve. But afterward, the results turn out to be correct. It’s just that I can’t recognize their logic. The bloggers whose logic I can understand are the same kind of people as them—just another bunch of retail suckers. Didn’t you notice how often I’ve seen comments saying that? That really shocked me. Don’t you understand the truth that all efforts not driven by results are just playing dumb? If you can’t even understand this, then you’re destined to be a sucker for life.

Let me tell you a real case. Not long ago, the nonferrous metals sector had abnormal movement, and robots also had abnormal movement. Everyone should remember—those were just one- or two-day moves, then nothing afterward. But on the day these two sectors started exploding, I said they wouldn’t have follow-through because: first, the time window wouldn’t allow it; second, the capital structure wouldn’t allow it; third, there was no hard logic. Then a few veteran stock traders came to “educate” me, telling me not to say things too absolutely. He’s been trading for over a decade and claimed he can’t be wrong. I only responded with one line: don’t be subjective just because you hold the position—within two days, there will be results, and most likely I’m the one who’s right. In the end, the facts proved that for every sector-wide projection, I didn’t miss—but they still wouldn’t believe it.

Here’s a little more insight for you. Especially those who have been in the market for three to five years or more and still haven’t achieved consistent profitability: it means your effort direction is wrong. If after three years you still don’t have a stable, consistent profitable system, then your entire trading system is worthless. Everything you think you’ve learned is one-sided. I’ve talked to many traders—retail, prop traders, and big players. In general, the “two-year system watershed” is when people can really get out of the mess. If after two years you still can’t stabilize, it means your previous understanding was wrong. You can’t make big money; at best you can earn some small profits from the market’s violent opportunities. To break out, you either need to make a painful decision, forget all your prior “knowledge,” restart from scratch, and learn a new systematic trading approach; or you exit the stock market—you don’t fit. Especially those arrogant veteran traders who’ve been trading for over a decade: all you need to consider is one question. If your understanding is correct, after more than ten years, would you still be a retail trader? Time has already proven that your “enlightenment” wasn’t actually悟道; it was wishful thinking.

Nowadays, for short-term systematic traders who are “a bit worse,” basically every month compounding can reach over 5%. Even if you start with 50k as the base, after more than ten years, you’d have a net worth in the tens of millions at least. You wouldn’t still be here asking and seeking answers. I just want to tell you one thing: people who “coddle and indulge” you are usually doing so because they want something from you. It doesn’t matter whether you like it or not—since you have the ability to make money in the stock market, you should judge for yourself. If you don’t have the ability to verify真假 by yourself the next day based on the charts after reading the replay, then you’d better leave the stock market early. In the end, it’s very likely to be a loss of both money and people—like wasting effort with a bamboo basket of water.

Market overview:

The market is a rotational structure. The current index structure determines that sector continuity won’t be good. It’s hard for any sector to turn into a trend-driven行情 like April to June (456月). At most, you’ll see a choppy sector cross-rotation. Don’t hold too many trend expectations for any sector. Wait until the index structure shows stabilization and continuity before looking for sector-wide sustained opportunities.

For the AI tech sector, by late June it had been talked about every day. The金粉们 know it better in (Hard-core Logic Replay). They said it very clearly: the “mad dog wave” at the end of June was about finding someone to stand guard. But at the top, it’s impossible for everyone to get fully A-sold. The ones with logic and ongoing earnings expectations are those expected to consolidate from the 30-day line to the prior high zone. Those that come up by蹭 concepts without logic will weaken continuously.

Including Thursday’s violent rebound in the AI sector: on Thursday night (Hard-core Logic Replay), they already said what the underlying logic for the violent rebound was, and what logic was missing for continuity. And before Friday’s open, the call was made with everything—warning that if it’s going to peak, you need to avoid it. Those were all forward-looking confirmations. In the whole market, shouldn’t there be no one more certain than what I said? The金粉们 are all witnesses.

In the public section on Thursday, I also gave you a spoiler: the sector needs someone to stand guard on Friday. The screenshots above have already been posted.

About (Hard-core Logic Replay)—lots of people are still asking. Take it as it comes. Find the best; if you can’t find it, don’t deliberately chase. I might stop it at any time. What I’ve always said: as long as the article’s hype level is high enough, I’m willing to keep sharing in the public section (Hard-core Logic Replay). But right now, the hype level is simply not enough to get me interested in writing you guys a “script.”

Topic recap:
1、Commercial aerospace: (This sector is the least in need of explanation. I already gave the projection at the end of June. You can check the historical articles to verify. The expectation was a launch on July 10, with “10” and “乙” in it, back then there was still no publicly announced launch date. And I said the success probability was 90%. I also explained the logic: when the sector trades, it’s either that you confirm the launch time so you can have a chance to ride the incubation/positioning, but as it gets close you must pay attention to兑现; and also it can come again after a successful recovery. Did the sector move exactly like that? Compare with the chart yourself and verify. As for whether there’s an opportunity for a sector trend below: Monday’s follow-through is crucial. Most of the chips on Friday were locked by the good news. Monday is the test for the sector. For those who can’t understand the follow-through on the chart, it’s not very friendly. Pay attention later—don’t rush. The more you rush, the more likely you are to end up standing guard.)
Limit-up stocks:
Xingwang Yuda (sector high flyer; at first it didn’t follow the commercial aerospace logic, but it’s still within the commercial aerospace sector—riding the sector headwind; stronger and stronger expectations; other approaches are below expectations)

Juli Suojü (sector sentiment bellwether; also stronger and stronger expectations—other approaches are below expectations)

China Satellite (the stock most likely to become the “main force” expectation; just anchor how much strength the sector can show to his strength)

Hailan Xin (sector elasticity arbitrage; anchor expected performance to sector strength. I previously set up a covert position, but unfortunately I followed off early, switching to other stocks. It didn’t delay me, but the process wasn’t as comfortable as with this one)

Guisheng Shares, Shenjian Shares, Aerospace Engineering, Aerospace Development, China Satellite Communications, Zhongtian Rockets, Tongyi Zhong, Aerospace Electronics, Aerospace HuanYu, Jinli Huadian, Jiu Feng Energy, Jiayuan Technology, Aerospace Technology, CITIC Heavy Industries, Hualin Cables, Aerospace Power, Junda Shares, CSSC Technology, Goldwind Technology

2、AI hardware, computing power, fiber optics, optical communications, storage (pan-tech): (This is a random consolidation of the whole AI sector that didn’t form branch effects; each branch has its own identity and a rebound, with non-linked branch behavior.) (The sector’s one-way selling on Friday is ugly to look at. I checked outside: most of the bloggers who were bearish after Thursday’s close are the same group who were bullish after Thursday’s close. Sure enough, all within their predictions: once the chart plays out, they start blowing it up. It’s truly incredible. The problem is they didn’t dare to give the market an accurate view before trading—they only started talking after the close. Then in the comments they翻出 what they said earlier to brag. In reality, the comments include both bulls and bears, but after the fact they only pull out the correct ones and never mention the wrong ones—just like on a朋友圈: the night before they post N updates covering everything about stocks and sectors, basically full coverage, and set it so only themselves can view it. Then the next day after the close, they verify, and then set it so everyone can view it. That’s how their “amazing accuracy” is produced. As for us—those who directly state views in the main post are rare. At least I didn’t see many. About the AI sector: the view remains unchanged—it’s a choppy, consolidation expectation. Don’t be misled by how fierce and ugly Friday’s sell-off looked. That was a correction to Thursday’s violent rebound. Without major news catalysts, it’s hard to go one-way. With logic, it’s range consolidation: consolidation from the lows to the highs. When you feel desperate, that’s when the selling stops and rebound happens; when you’re happy, that’s when the counter-sell happens. Without logic, it keeps weakening, going where it came from, over and over.)
Limit-up stocks:
Shikong Technology, Xinyaqiang, Zhongtong Guomai, Guolin Technology, Zhongtian Jianzhuang, Chaoxun Technology, Wolton Technology, Oriental Materials, Huasheng Tiansheng, Yingxin Development, Jikai Xinneng

3、Pharmaceuticals: (Treat it as a low-position rotation, a sector that goes against the index and against sentiment continuity. The worse the index and sentiment continuity are, the better they might be—just a possibility.)
Limit-up stocks:
Meinuohua (if the sector has an opportunity, this one should be more likely to become an active stock of the sector. How much opportunity it has depends on sector follow-through)

Lifang Pharmaceutical, Harbin Pharmaceutical, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, Guangzheng Ophthalmology, Changshan Pharmaceutical, Yinuosi, Zhongseng Pharmaceutical, Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical

Interactive thinking questions:

1、Do you think commercial aerospace will replace the AI sector, or will there be cross-rotation between the two?

2、In the AI tech direction, does the one with the biggest “capacity” (largest tradable volume) have a chance to become an identifiable, consensus group?

3、If commercial aerospace has a chance, would it be a trending opportunity or a tradable opportunity?

Special thanks to the金粉 with 25,000 points on the Heat Ranking #1: @邪恶大章鱼
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Heat Ranking #2: @慢慢慢慢慢7**
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Heat Ranking #3: @日丶新**
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Thanks to every brother and sister who contributes heat:**
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Thanks to the brothers who sent encouragement coupons

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