Launched on Thursday, recovered on Friday.

Hey guys, good evening! The busy demon master finally has time to type a few words. After the rebound on Thursday night, Fairy Sister shared her view—cautious and conservative has been the main theme recently. Today we’ll dig into the details of it all. [TaoGuba]

Please give Fairy Sister lots of likes and support with comments—wish you all a happy life and a smooth, long run.

I. Market Review

1. Semiconductors

On Thursday, there was a high-volume big bullish candle. The volume was close to 3 trillion, especially in semiconductors—basically many tickers were near their prior highs. As said on Thursday night, the volume was short by nearly 600 billion earlier; plus the positions could be relieved (sold out/broken even), so the selling pressure would definitely be big. Especially since there was no “stuck-kill” (suppressed sell-off), and the US stock market chip-related names were also surging on Thursday night, which gave plenty of time for orderly exits. The Friday opening auction was also pretty eventful: on one hand, besides Tianshan Electronics and Research Silicon-related names that were small leaders on Thursday, most other tickers only opened flat on the auction. From a technical perspective, they neither beat expectations nor offered good value. If the sector had opened lower by a few percentage points, then maybe late-buyers would still have some desire to chase during the day. But an opening flat or a slight higher open—given that it was in a sensitive area—there was naturally no value. So looking at the Friday trading action in silicon-based semiconductors: other than “open lower and drift lower,” it was either “open flat and pulse up in the morning, then drop sharply.” Overall, it was more like兑现 (taking profits).

Therefore, in terms of sector expectations here, Friday’s bearish engulfing (yin bao yang) was quite damaging to market sentiment. The probability of another big bullish rebound/turnaround and “reversal” (big yang counter-encapsulation) is rather low. After all, Friday’s was also new trapped-capital getting involved. In the short term, they may need to stretch the timeline—using time to create room (time to let price work). However, most institutional money is still in there. In the short run, wanting to extract themselves will be difficult. They can only withdraw while walking away. So here, those with independent走势 (independent performance) are the direction to observe.

Sector core pre-market supplement—haven’t really looked closely yet

2. Other Themes

On Friday morning, the strongest was the medical sector. Early on, it opened with a gap down, then started lifting in all directions. But the downside of medical is that it isn’t focused enough. Other than Wanbang Pharma’s mini-consensus group rallying higher, there wasn’t much elsewhere—some scattered moves here and there, but the ones that had performed earlier didn’t really get lifted. Fundamentally, it’s still rotation. Especially in the past few days, when they had already “hit” that sector down, this morning was more about seeing that semiconductors didn’t have incoming capital pushing, so they chose to take a defensive route (hedging).

Then during the lunch session, news came in—like a rocket recovery. Wow—at around 1:00 p.m., in an instant, dozens of涨停 (limit-ups) printed, all rising in a straight line. The power of quant trading is indeed terrifying. But this kind of “surprise-style” surge hasn’t been tested by retail investors yet; it’s more likely driven by oversold rebounds and capital that doesn’t want to go into tech. So on Friday, 💥—more than half of the封住 (those who held limit-ups) were names that had been down for a long time. The higher the position, the harder they got blown out. A typical example is Chengchang Technology. As for the news, it’s certainly stimulating enough, so people will keep talking it up into the weekend. The key is whether there is enough capital willing to bid and hold a “one-word limit-up” (顶一字). The core observation is: for several themes dug out over the weekend, represented by Shaanxi Huada and JiuFeng Energy, first see whether the order book is firm enough; then see whether the funds are willing to follow. You still have to watch whether semiconductors are staging a counter-push. Chasing for a “抢筹” (front-running bids) is basically retail helping quant schemes raise the sedan. According to the market over the past few weeks, the direction that Monday doesn’t chase the hype is the usual rule.

The rest is about sentiment. After working all day, Hengshang Energy Efficiency still failed to close 9 boards (9 straight limit-ups)—which is normal. These days, everyone isn’t very enthusiastic about consecutive limit-ups. Only when an entire sector is extremely withered could something like that pop up.

II. Trading Ideas

Whoever buys first should sell first—if you don’t have the lead position, don’t lift the sedan (don’t be the one to chase). If the early session stabilizes below the waterline—especially around positioning around the 5-day and 10-day moving averages—then the cost-effectiveness is slightly higher. That’s about it……