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The World Cup’s final four are set—who will lift the trophy in the end?

The Kansas City night sky witnessed history— for the first time, the top four teams in the FIFA world rankings all stood on the World Cup semifinal stage at the same time. The flags of four football kingdoms—Spain, Argentina, France, and England—flapped loudly in the summer breeze across the American continent. As the noise fades and the war drums begin to beat, everyone is asking the same question: who will lift that radiant, golden Hercules Cup at the MetLife Stadium in New York on July 19?

My answer is not the name with the highest probability in a data model, but a more fateful judgment—Argentina will successfully defend the title, and in Messi’s final dance, add one more star to the Pampas.

I. Favorable draw: the gentlest path laid out by the hand of destiny

The World Cup is never only a contest of strength—it’s also a game of luck and timing. This edition’s format design has drawn two separate qualification routes for four elite powerhouses: Spain and Argentina are placed in different halves, meaning they won’t meet before the final; France and England each guard their own side. What does this mean? It means that on the road to the final, Argentina has almost avoided the most brutal kind of entanglement.

Goldman Sachs’ 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations also confirm this: although Argentina ranks third in tournament-winning probability, the most likely schedule given by the model is—Brazil vs. Argentina in the semifinal, and France vs. Spain in the other semifinal. No matter who breaks through from the other half, the level of depletion in Argentina’s opponent will be far lower than in the all-out, Mars-to-Earth clash between France and Spain. When the French and Spaniards fight to the brink of exhaustion in Dallas’s high heat, Argentina can approach the final with far more composure. This “rested advantage” in the knockout stages of cup competitions is often more decisive than paper strength.

II. Messi: the burning and blooming of the last World Cup

Let’s face a fact that can’t be quantified by data volume: this is Messi’s last World Cup.

At 39 years old—an age that is almost equivalent to late career in football. But Messi’s actions tell everyone—age is just a number, and legends never fade. In the quarterfinal against Switzerland, at the 10th minute, he delivered a perfectly weighted corner to assist McAllister’s header, marking his 10th assist in his World Cup career. He became the first player in history to achieve the “21 goals + 10 assists” double. He holds the record for appearances in World Cup main tournaments (32 matches), created the record for knockout-stage appearances (15 matches), and rules both the top scorers and top assisters lists.

Even more moving is that he no longer needs to do the five-man dribble-through like in his younger days. Today’s Messi is a dagger hidden in its sheath—no action until it’s time, and then it seals the throat. He only needs to show up in the right moment in the right place—one through ball, one piece of orchestration, one free-kick—and he can change the entire direction of the match. That level of “playing with the brain” is something no young prodigy can replicate. When everyone on a team is willing to burn with a shared belief until the last moment, they become unbeatable.

III. Twelve matches unbeaten: the iron-blooded tone of the defending champions

Argentina’s record in this World Cup is, in itself, an epic. After beating Switzerland 3-1, they had already achieved a six-match winning streak in World Cup main play, with twelve consecutive matches unbeaten and fifteen straight matches with goals—three team history records all being broken at the same time. Even more notable is that in the round of 16 against Egypt, they had trailed 0-2, yet they scored three consecutive goals to come back and secure a decisive win. That kind of temperament—never collapsing in the face of despair, and raising their head in a deep abyss—is something no data model can capture.

Scaloni’s tactical system, honed over three years, has become a precisely running machine. The midfield dual engines of Enzo and McAllister combine both technique and toughness. Romero and Otamendi’s center-back partnership is seasoned and reliable. Alvarez and Lautaro rotating as the forward pressing configuration makes opponents feel they don’t know where to defend. This is not a team that relies on one single person—it’s a team where everyone knows what they should do at the right time.

IV. Cracks in the opponents: France and Spain wear each other down

The semifinal matchups are already confirmed: France vs. Spain, and Argentina vs. England. The outcomes of these two ties will directly determine the shape of the final.

France vs. Spain is the most talked-about summit clash of this World Cup. Goldman’s model predicts Spain will win this matchup, but Opta’s data paints a different picture—France leads all teams with a 22.85% title-winning probability. No matter who wins, it will be a massive, exhausting battle. Mbappé for France is carrying an ankle injury, while Spain’s Yamal is a mystery in terms of form. Both sides have to empty everything they have within 90 minutes, or even 120.

What about Argentina vs. England? England just fought through a 120-minute war to overturn Norway 2-1, and their physical reserves have turned the red light. Though Tuchel’s team has a star-studded attacking lineup—Bellingham, Kane, Saka— the psychological curse of “no trophies in sixty years” hangs over them like an invisible shackle. Historical data shows that England’s World Cup performance always falls below the level their Elo rating should imply. This “England curse” often returns to haunt them at crucial moments. Against England, Argentina—whether in fitness, mindset, or head-to-head history (Argentina won both World Cup meetings)—has a slight but meaningful edge.

V. The iron law of intercontinental alternation: history stands on Europe’s side, but destiny chose South America

Since Brazil successfully defended the World Cup in 1962, the champions have largely followed a pattern of alternating between Europe and South America. In 2022, Argentina won as South America’s representative. Following that rule, the champion in 2026 will most likely return to Europe. Goldman based its logic on this, pushing Spain to the top of the title-probability leaderboard.

But the charm of football lies in this—rules are meant to be broken. When France won in 2018, nobody predicted that Mbappé would burst onto the stage in the final. When Argentina won in 2022, nobody believed they could lose their first match to Saudi Arabia and then overturn it to become champions. When all models point to Spain and all data points to France, perhaps destiny is quietly laying a more legendary path for Messi and his Argentina.

More importantly, Argentina is the top-seeded powerhouse with the best luck in this World Cup. Along the way, they almost never had to face opponents at a true title-contender level, until the semifinals, when they would finally face real tests. This “easy first, hard later” rhythm in qualification gives them enough time to adjust their form and accumulate energy, rather than having to go through life-and-death battles in every round like France and Spain.