#美军称再打击伊朗#Next, what’s truly worth paying attention to is the following things.

First: How the US responds.

If the US only applies diplomatic pressure,

the market will quickly absorb it.

If it begins large-scale military action,

pressure on risk assets will rise significantly.

Second: Whether international shipping truly comes to a stop

More important than the headlines is:

whether any tankers still dare to pass through.

If insurance companies stop providing coverage,

and shipping companies suspend transport,

then oil prices may continue to surge higher.

Third: Crude oil prices

Crude oil is the most direct thermometer for this.

If WTI and Brent continue to rise rapidly,

it indicates the market believes things are worsening.

If prices surge and then pull back,

it suggests the market thinks this is only political bargaining.