On July 12, according to Fortune, Bitcoin is still in a bearish phase, and multiple industry analysts believe the three main reasons for Bitcoin’s continued slump are the four-year cycle, inflation pressure, and market leverage liquidations. However, some analysts expect that as the interest-rate environment improves, Bitcoin could rebound to $100,000 by the end of the year.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the Bitcoin four-year cycle continues to affect investor psychology. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has typically followed a pattern of rising for three consecutive years, followed by one year of decline. Market adjustments after the Mt. Gox collapse in 2014, the bursting of the 2018 ICO bubble, and the FTX collapse in 2022 all fit this pattern. Hougan said that by late 2025, some long-term Bitcoin holders have started trimming their positions.

Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl said this round of decline is driven more by macro factors. U.S. June inflation year over year rose to 4.1%, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term target, leading the market to expect that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh may raise rates later this year. Pandl said Bitcoin’s price over the past few years has shown a clear correlation with changes in interest rates: low-rate environments have pushed Bitcoin higher, while a rate-hiking cycle has brought pressure.

In addition, market leverage is also an important factor behind Bitcoin’s drop. Hougan and CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno said that during bull markets investors increase leverage, and as the outlook weakens, leverage is being squeezed out of the market. The financing-buying model used by Bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy is also under pressure, with its stock price down about 75% since October.

Pandl expects Bitcoin in the short term could test a $58,000 bottom, and the market will still be influenced by factors such as potential rate hikes, Strategy’s impact on market confidence, and progress on U.S. crypto legislation. However, Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategy Officer at 21Shares, expects Bitcoin to bottom during the summer and rebound to $100,000 by the end of the year, citing reasons including expectations for future rate cuts and the end of the Iran war. #预测世界杯挪威VS英格兰