#世界杯冠军预测 The top 4 teams in the FIFA rankings advanced to the World Cup semifinals—who will lift the trophy? If Spain wins, three major curses will continue

By 3 a.m. on July 12 Beijing time, all matches of the 2026 World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico—quarterfinals—were completed. Argentina beat the “Crusaders” 3-1 to advance to the World Cup semifinals for the 7th time. With that, all four teams in this World Cup’s semifinals have been confirmed: three European powerhouses and one South American contender—France, Spain, England, and Argentina—defeated Morocco, Belgium, Norway, and Switzerland respectively with scores of 2-0, 2-1, 2-1, and 3-1. The FIFA world rankings of these four teams are 3rd, 2nd, 4th, and 1st respectively—exactly the top 4 teams in the world rankings. So which team is set to lift the trophy?

From the four quarterfinals, France won the easiest, beating Morocco ranked 7th by FIFA 2-0. Had it not been for the penalty kick taken personally by Mbappé that was saved by Morocco goalkeeper Bounou, the quarterfinal score would very likely have been 3-0. France has reached the semifinals 7 times, and the final 4 times. In this World Cup’s final stage, they are 6-for-6 with 16 goals scored and 2 conceded, and they are the only team that did not concede a goal in the quarterfinal—making them undoubtedly the biggest title favorite.

Spain and England both advanced by defeating Belgium ranked 9th and Norway ranked 31st with the same 2-1 scoreline. But unlike England, Spain won and advanced in regular time. Under De la Fuente, Ruiz and Merino each scored once in the first and second halves. This is Spain’s 3rd time reaching the World Cup semifinals: they finished 4th in 1950, and won the title in 2010. Back then, in the semifinals they beat Germany 1-0, and in the final they beat the Netherlands 1-0. By contrast, England had a tougher time. The match ended 1-1 in regular time, and in extra time England won 2-1 thanks to Bellingham’s brilliant performance against Norway.

Defending champions Argentina are the only South American team among the four. In the quarterfinals, they beat Switzerland 3-1. The Ar-瑞 match also went 120 minutes. At the 10th minute, Messi assisted Mac Allister to open the scoring; Ondoye of Switzerland equalized in the 67th minute, and the score remained 1-1 until the end of regular time. During the game, Embolo received two yellow cards and was sent off, and Switzerland played with ten men starting from the 73rd minute. At the 112th minute, Lopes assisted Álvarez to score. Then at the 121st minute, Lautaro scored the third goal to seal the match. Argentina advanced as desired despite paying a cost of four yellow cards in extra time.

In fact, Scalonni’s side eliminated Switzerland to reach the semifinals—Argentina’s 5th time in World Cup history making the semifinals. In 1930, the semifinals ended with a 6-1 win over the United States, but the final ended with a 2-4 loss to Uruguay, earning them the runner-up spot. In 1986 semifinals they beat Belgium 2-0, then won the final against West Germany 3-2 to claim the title. In 1990 semifinals it was 1-1 against Italy, and they won 4-3 on penalties to advance; the final ended with a 0-1 loss to West Germany, giving them runner-up honors. In 2014 semifinals they drew 0-0 with the Netherlands, won 4-2 on penalties, then lost the final 0-1 to Germany for runner-up. They eliminated the Netherlands on penalties, and in 2022 they beat Croatia 3-0. Since the 1978 World Cup did not have semifinals, Argentina won the title in 1978, 1986, and 2022, and were runners-up in 1930, 1990, and 2014, three times each. For the 2026 World Cup semifinals, the four semifinalists are the first time—since FIFA introduced its ranking system in 1992—that the semifinal spots have been completely taken by the teams ranked in the world top 4.

The semifinal matchups are as follows: France (world rank 3) vs Spain (world rank 2) at 3 a.m. on July 15 Beijing time, and England (world rank 4) vs Argentina (world rank 1) at 3 a.m. on July 16 Beijing time. So which team will reach the final and take the title?

As for France vs Spain: in their recent 12 meetings, Spain has had the upper hand, with Spain winning 3 times, drawing 1, and losing 8. Among these 12 encounters, only one was a match in the World Cup’s final stage—a Round of 16 on June 28, 2006, when France beat Spain 3-1. France’s most recent win over Spain before that was the Nations League final on October 11, 2021, where they won 2-1. Another France win came in a friendly in September 2014, 1-0. In October 2012, the two teams met in an official match and drew 1-1; in other competitions (whether official matches or friendlies), Spain won—three 2-0s, two 2-1s, and one 1-0. The teams’ most recent meeting was the Nations League A semifinals in June 2025: Spain beat France 5-4. At the 55th minute, Spain led 4-0, and France did not reduce the deficit until the 59th minute, when they made it 1-4. Worth noting is that including an own goal by the opponent, France clawed back four goals in 35 minutes.

As for England vs Argentina: in their last eight meetings, England had 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, slightly ahead. There were also 3 warm-up matches; the most recent head-to-head was a friendly in November 2005, when England beat Argentina 3-2. There were two more friendly draws between them: 0-0 and 2-2. The other five matches all took place in the World Cup’s final stage: the 1962 World Cup group stage (England 3-1 Argentina), the 1966 World Cup quarterfinal (England 1-0 Argentina), the 1986 World Cup quarterfinal (England 1-2 Argentina), the 1998 World Cup quarterfinal (England 2-2 Argentina, with a 3-4 penalty shootout), and the 2002 World Cup group stage (England 1-0 Argentina).

With this World Cup about to enter the semifinals, judging from the past “curses” of the World Cup, the champion is starting to come into view.
1. Foreign head coaches have never lifted the trophy. This “century title-winning rule,” which began in 1930, has been in place all along: only teams coached by domestic managers have the magic chance to lift the trophy—and no team has broken the “fate” yet.
Among the four teams in this World Cup’s semifinals, only England is led by a foreign head coach (Thomas Tuchel, German). The head coaches who are domestic are France (Deschamps), Spain (Luis de la Fuente), and Argentina (Scalonni has dual nationality—Argentina/Italy).
2. The trophy cannot be successfully defended.
In fact, during the Remit Cup era (the old trophy from 1930-1970), there were teams that successfully defended—for example, in the 1934 and 1938 World Cups, Italy won back-to-back by defending the title. In the 1958/1962 World Cups, Brazil successfully defended. However, since the trophy was introduced in 1974, no team has managed to defend the title successfully. Past champions: West Germany 1974, Argentina 1978, Italy 1982, Argentina 1986, West Germany 1990, Brazil 1994, France 1998, Brazil 2002, Italy 2006, Spain 2010, Germany 2014, France 2018, Argentina 2022.
3. Teams that go 3-for-3 in the group stage are hard to win the title (starting from the 2002 World Cup).
In fact, this pattern only formed as a phenomenon over the last 20-plus years. Brazil won the trophy in the 2002 World Cup with a 3-for-3 group stage: 2-1 vs Turkey, 4-0 vs China, and 5-2 vs Costa Rica. After that, every team that eventually won the trophy dropped points in the World Cup group stage. For example: 2006 Italy, 2010 Spain, 2014 Germany, and 2018 France all went 2 wins and 1 draw in the group stage; 2022 Argentina went 2 wins and 1 loss. And in this World Cup’s group stage, the teams with a 3-for-3 record are Mexico, France, and Argentina. The host Mexico was eliminated early, and then the other 2 teams advanced to the semifinals. Spain and England both finished the group stage with 2 wins and 1 draw. Among these four teams, the number of title wins is: Argentina 3 times (1978, 1986, 2022), France 2 times (1998, 2018), England 1 time (1966), Spain 1 time (2010).

Whether the World Cup’s century-long curses can be broken depends entirely on France, Argentina, and England—who will lift the trophy? Or will the curse continue!