Today’s market overview

This weekend’s move… it’s really not like there’s much to write about….
The candlestick movement is calm, and on-chain it’s the same—calm.
It’s just that last Friday there was a small wave of cutting losses: long-term holders cashed out losses of about $460 million. A batch of funds bought around 100k last October chose to cut losses and exit.
But it stopped on Saturday—no continuation. The number of coins transferred into exchanges on Saturday was also very small. So this weekend is truly calm.
At the same time, spot trading volume on exchanges is also very low… combined with positive gamma weakening volatility around 64k. (Chart 1) In a situation where spot volume is already not big, the impact of positive gamma becomes even more significant. Intuitively, it keeps pulling the price back and forth to trade around 64k.
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Open orders (Chart 2)
The entire open-order range still hasn’t changed much compared with Friday.
The aggressive low-long range given on Friday (63~63.5k), which has a large amount of futures contracts posted, is holding the low-liquidity of the weekend as is…
But now the highs are continuing to decrease, and the overall market tone is bearish.
From my observation, the real test here will be when Monday’s early-morning liquidity vacuum hits (and also the time when CME opened in early Monday morning in the past—although CME is also open on weekends now, many algorithms still keep the rhythm of the old opening times).
So early Monday morning, you can focus on whether the 63~63.5k contract orders get hit or not…
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Color band model (Chart 3)
There isn’t much of a color band here yet. So just play it intraday. There’s no room for swing entries here.
Swing opportunities are still around 65k, and between 61k~62k.
Because right now that 1,300+ spot whale order has been re-placed at 61k. So when the price goes below 62k, it’s likely the color band will reappear. That’s when you can start watching for swing long opportunities.
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Liquidity (Chart 4) is also the same as Friday… basically still wait for opportunities around 63k or 65k early Monday morning…
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So today’s intraday plan is basically nothing, similar to Friday.
Don’t set long entries in the 63~63.5k zone. 63.6k has already been tested repeatedly over the weekend.
Early Monday morning, look to go down into the lower range to wait for a long (around 460M).
For the upside, the short-term view is still after 65k has been inserted—then once there’s an SFP around 64.6k and it can be recovered, that’s when you can enter.
For swing longs, still wait until below 62k and observe how 61k’s whale big orders perform in any rush.