Dark clouds of a renewed U.S.-Iran war loom again, and global markets are once more under pressure

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have heated up again, putting global capital markets back into a state of anxiety. Based on historical experience, whenever military conflict in the Middle East escalates, international oil prices, gold, and other safe-haven assets are the first to react, while risk assets are prone to large fluctuations. This time is no exception. The market’s biggest concern is not short-term military action, but whether the conflict will continue to expand.

The Strait of Hormuz plays a crucial role in global energy transportation. If shipping is affected, international crude oil prices could rise rapidly, further increasing global inflation pressure. For central banks in various countries, inflation—something that had already begun to ease—may return again, which also means the pace of rate cuts could be impacted.

For financial markets, short-term volatility is unavoidable, but crises often come with opportunities. If the conflict stays within a limited scope, the speed at which market sentiment recovers is usually faster than expected. Conversely, if more countries become involved, global capital will further flow into safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar.

When investors face sudden events, the more important thing is to stay rational rather than blindly chase rallies or panic-sell. What truly determines the long-term direction of the market remains global economic fundamentals, corporate earnings ability, and the direction of policy. Panic caused by war ultimately only affects the market’s tempo, not the long-term trend of economic development.#美伊战争阴云再起