All four semifinalists are set! France is still the biggest favorite, but I’m betting on Spain to pull off an upset

Brothers, in Beijing time on July 12 morning, after the last two quarterfinals are played, all four semifinalists for the World Cup are out—France, Spain, England, and Argentina.

These four teams just happen to be the top four teams in the FIFA world rankings. It’s the first time in World Cup history that teams ranked in the top four all meet in the semifinals. The semifinal matchups are also confirmed: France vs Spain on July 15, and England vs Argentina on July 16.

First, let’s look at the latest title-winning data.

The latest odds from bookmakers: France is far ahead at 2.5, Spain is second at 4.33, England third at 4.5, and Argentina brings up the rear at 4.75. The other set of data is similar: France 6/4; Spain and England are both 10/3; Argentina 9/2.

Opta’s latest supercomputer implied probabilities: France 33.81% first, Spain 24.16% second, England 21.97% third, Argentina 20.06% fourth.

Predictfun prediction market data: France 39%, Argentina and England both 20%, Spain 19%.

All the data points to the same conclusion—France is the biggest favorite, and the advantage is clear.

But data is data, and football is round. I’ll go through each of the four teams’ situations one by one.

France — the steadiest title favorite. They’ve steamrolled through: three straight wins in the group stage; in the Round of 16 they beat Sweden 3-0; and in the Round of 8 they beat Paraguay 1-0. Mbappé has 7 goals and is chasing Messi closely in the top scorer race, while Olise leads the assist table with 5 assists. Squad depth, big-tournament experience, and balance in both attack and defense—France basically has no weak links. The only concern is facing Spain in the semifinal, and Spain is one of the best defensive teams at this World Cup.

Spain — the most underrated contender. They edged Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinal to win outright. Opta gives Spain a 24.16% chance to win the title, just behind France. But Predictfuu gives only 19%, placing them last among the four. Spain’s possession-based system and defensive stability have already been proven in this World Cup—so far in the knockout stage, they’ve conceded only 1 goal. If Spain can get past France, they’ll be favored in the final no matter who they face.

England — the most frustrating team to judge. In the quarterfinal, England came back in extra time to beat Norway 2-1. Bellingham scored twice. England’s squad value is the world’s highest, and the talent is overflowing, but the team’s psychological strength at crucial moments has always been a sore spot. Their semifinal against Argentina will be a rivalry game—if you know, you know.

Argentina — the most exhausted defending champions. They beat Switzerland 3-1 in extra time in the quarterfinal. After trailing Egypt 0-2 in the Round of 16 and then coming back with three straight goals, they again went to extra time against Switzerland. Argentina has played every knockout match like it’s do-or-die. Messi has 8 goals to lead the top scorer race, but Argentina’s problems are too obvious: over-reliance on Messi, an aging squad, and no real wide forwards. Messi is just too hard to carry and too exhausting. Opta gives Argentina only a 20.06% chance to win the title—the lowest among the four. The defending champions are the least backed—and that’s the reality.

So the question is—who will actually be the champion?

On the data side, it’s France. First in the odds, first in Opta, first in the prediction market—every metric points to France. France’s squad, form, and experience are the most reliable among the four. If you bet based on the data and odds, France wins the title.

But my instinct tells me—Spain.

Why? Two reasons.

First, Spain is the only team that can tactically contain France. France’s strengths are talent and explosiveness, but Spain’s possession and control system can keep the tempo of the match firmly in their own hands. France’s biggest fear is not being able to control the ball and not being able to launch effective counterattacks. Spain’s back line is the most solid in this World Cup, with a clean sheet in the knockout stage so far. Even if France’s attack is fierce, against Spain’s collective defense it’s hard to score comfortably.

Second, Spain’s path to qualification is more convincing than France’s. France steamrolled the way there and never faced a true test. But in the quarterfinal against Belgium, Spain ultimately won through a substitute Merino goal in sudden fashion—being able to handle tough matches and win ugly is exactly the kind of mentality a champion should have.

My final prediction: Spain will win the title.

After knocking out France in the semifinal, and beating England or Argentina in the final—Spain’s possession-based football will complete a perfect return in 2026.

Of course, this is only a prediction. The charm of football is that—no one ever knows what will happen in the next second. After the semifinals are played—France vs Spain on July 15 and England vs Argentina on July 16—everything will become clearer.

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