Bear market into the second half? Real Vision analyst: Bitcoin could be bullish within the next two to three years, to $250k

Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said on the Trade Secrets program that Bitcoin is entering the latter half of a bear market, and that in the next two to three years it could rally to $250k. But he warned that quantum computing threats won’t be addressed before 2027 and will become a major risk for the network.
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Table of contents

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• “Typical” bear market, volatility has already fallen by half
• Not just liquidity tightening—on-chain demand is also worsening
• Bullish to $250k, but $1 million won’t come until 2032-2033
• Quantum computing isn’t far off—action is needed before 2027

Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said on CoinTelegraph’s Trade Secrets program that Bitcoin is in the final stage of the bear market, and that downside momentum is starting to weaken. “I think we’re going through most of the bear market moves. Obviously it’s not over yet, but at least we’re approaching the latter half.”

“Typical” bear market, volatility has already fallen by half

Coutts described Bitcoin’s current price action as a “typical normal bear market.” Currently, BTC trades around $63k, which is about a 50% drop from the all-time high of $126.1k reached in October 2025.

Notably, Bitcoin’s volatility is down by about 50% compared with the previous market cycle, suggesting that the current downturn may be milder than past bear markets.

“I’m seeing bullish divergence start to appear in momentum over a longer time frame. This tells me negative momentum is easing, but it doesn’t mean we’ve already exited the bear market technically.”

However, Coutts also reminded that markets rarely repeat historical patterns with precision. “They just move in their own way. Right now, all trend indicators are clearly bearish.”

Not just liquidity tightening—on-chain demand is also worsening

Many market participants blamed Bitcoin’s decline in the fourth quarter of last year on global liquidity tightening, but Coutts pointed out that weak on-chain fundamentals also played an important role.

“On-chain demand definitely drives price, and it’s related to global liquidity and the business cycle to some extent—and they’ve also started to deteriorate.”

Bullish to $250k, but $1 million won’t come until 2032-2033

When asked whether he agrees with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood’s $1 million prediction, Coutts stayed cautious.

“My models do have $1 million around 2032 and 2033. But it depends on how much money gets printed in the middle.”

He said, “I’m more inclined to believe that in the next two to three years BTC will reach between $200k and $250k.”

Quantum computing isn’t far off—action is needed before 2027

On the other hand, Coutts also looked at longer-term risks. He said the Bitcoin community needs to take more decisive action against the threat of quantum computing before 2027.

“If there’s no real action, this will become an increasingly important issue for the network. Because Bitcoin is a decentralized network, implementing major protocol upgrades takes five years.”

Coutts emphasized that Bitcoin developers who downplay the potential threat of quantum computing “are on the wrong team.”

In addition to quantum risk, Coutts also sees AI’s impact on Bitcoin demand favorably. “We’ll see more wallets built for AI agents,” he said. “What will they use to store value? Will they make decisions the way humans do? That will be interesting.”