Mars Finance news. On July 12, according to Fortune, Bitcoin is still in a bearish phase. Multiple industry analysts believe three main factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s continued slump: the four-year cycle, inflation pressures, and market leverage liquidations. However, some analysts expect that as the interest-rate environment improves, Bitcoin could rebound to $100,000 by the end of the year. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the Bitcoin four-year cycle still affects investors’ psychology. Over the past decade, Bitcoin typically goes through three consecutive years of gains followed by a year of declines. Market adjustments after the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse, the 2018 ICO bubble burst, and the 2022 FTX collapse all fit this pattern. Hougan said that by the end of 2025, some long-term Bitcoin holders have started to reduce their positions. Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl said this round of decline has been driven more by macro factors. U.S. June inflation year over year rose to 4.1%, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term target, leading the market to expect that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may raise rates later this year. Pandl said that in recent years, Bitcoin’s price has shown a clear link to interest-rate changes: a low-interest environment has driven Bitcoin higher, while a rate-hiking cycle has brought pressure. In addition, market leverage is also an important factor in Bitcoin’s decline. Hougan and CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno said that during bull markets, investors increase leverage, but as the market weakens, leverage is being squeezed out of the market. Financing-buying patterns at Bitcoin treasury firms such as Strategy are also under pressure, with its share price down by about 75% since October. Pandl expects Bitcoin’s short-term bottom could be around $58,000, and the market will continue to be affected by factors such as potential rate hikes, Strategy’s impact on market confidence, and progress on U.S. crypto legislation. However, 21Shares Chief Investment Strategy Officer Adrian Fritz expects Bitcoin to bottom out in summer and rebound to $100,000 by the end of the year, citing reasons including expectations of future rate cuts and an end to the Iran war.

BTC-0.12%

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Analyst: The four-year cycle, inflation, and leverage liquidations have pushed Bitcoin into a bear market; by the end of the year, it could rebound to $100k.

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