Analyst: Bitcoin has fallen into a bear market due to a four-year cycle, inflation, and leveraged liquidations; by year-end, it will either rebound to $100,000 / or rebound to $100,000.

BlockBeats news, July 12, according to Fortune, Bitcoin is still in a bearish phase. Multiple industry analysts believe that the three main reasons behind Bitcoin’s continued slump are the four-year cycle, inflation pressure, and market leverage liquidation. However, some analysts expect that as the interest-rate environment improves, Bitcoin could rebound to $100,000 by the end of the year.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the Bitcoin four-year cycle still affects investor psychology. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has typically experienced a pattern in which it rises for three consecutive years and then sees a year of decline. Market adjustments after the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse, the 2018 ICO bubble burst, and the 2022 FTX collapse all fit this pattern. Hougan said that by the end of 2025, some long-term Bitcoin holders have started to reduce their positions.

Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said the current round of decline is driven more by macro factors. U.S. June inflation year over year rose to 4.1%, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term target, leading the market to expect that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may raise rates later this year. Pandl said that over the past few years, Bitcoin’s price has shown a clear correlation with changes in interest rates: a low-rate environment drove Bitcoin higher, while a rate-hike cycle brought pressure.

In addition, market leverage is also an important factor behind Bitcoin’s decline. Hougan and CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno said that during bull markets, investors increase leverage, and as the outlook weakens, leverage is being squeezed out of the market. The financing buy-in model of Bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy is also under pressure, and its share price has fallen by about 75% since October.

Pandl expects that Bitcoin in the short term could test a $58,000 bottom, with the market still influenced by factors such as potential further rate hikes, Strategy’s impact on market confidence, and progress on U.S. crypto legislation. However, 21Shares Chief Investment Strategy Officer Adrian Fritz expects Bitcoin to bottom out in the summer and rebound to $100,000 by the end of the year, citing reasons including expectations for future rate cuts and the end of the Iran war.