On July 9, 2026, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to 25, below the recent daily average of 30 to 50 vessels. After U.S. President Trump announced that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement had ended and that the two sides had further exchanged fire, the world’s most important energy corridor once again fell into full-scale conflict. Maritime analysts said that shipping activity, which had been gradually recovering since mid-June, has already collapsed. This is not a routine fluctuation in transit traffic, but a key juncture where geopolitical risk has shifted from diplomatic maneuvering to tangible physical assets. The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil transportation; disruption there means that energy supply, inflation expectations, monetary policy, and even the logic behind how crypto assets are priced will trigger a chain reaction.

Why the ceasefire broke down: from a temporary truce to full-scale exchanges of fire. On June 18, just 48 hours after the ceasefire began, the U.S. and Iran signed a 60-day memorandum of understanding. The U.S. allowed Iran to export oil and lifted some sanctions, while Iran pledged to ensure the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement lasted only 22 days. The spark for the breakdown was an attack by Iran on Tuesday on three commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including a Saudi Arabian oil tanker and a Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessel. The U.S. responded immediately with military strikes over two consecutive days—on July 8, striking about 90 Iranian military targets, and on July 9 launching another new round of airstrikes. At the same time, the U.S. Department of the Treasury revoked the general license authorizing Iranian oil sales, effectively reinstating the previous