$BTC 7.12 Crypto market intraday analysis

⚠️Risk warning: Crypto prices are highly volatile. This content is for market reference only and does not constitute investment advice. High-leverage contracts can easily lead to liquidation.
BTC current price $63,850, with a narrow intraday range. In the past 24 hours it rose slightly. After yesterday’s shorts were squeezed and pushed up to 64,524, the price faced pressure and fell back. Overhead sell pressure continues to suppress the market, and upward momentum gradually weakens.
ETH stabilizes around $1,803 and follows up slightly higher. Major altcoins show clear divergence. Public chains see a mild rebound, while most small-cap coins rebound to highs then pull back; funds are taking profits and exiting.
Institutional funds ended eight consecutive weeks of net outflows. This week, spot BTC and ETH ETFs combined for net inflows of $281.8 million. Sentiment may recover in the short term, but the strength of incremental inflows is limited.
On the macro side, the U.S. dollar index holds above 101.38, and U.S. Treasury yields have inched higher. Rate-hike expectations have again been delayed, with the first rate cut pushed to year-end. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, diverting more safe-haven capital. The market is waiting for the U.S. CPI data on the 14th; whether the data is good or bad will directly change the Fed’s rate pricing. Short-term market sentiment is heavily dominated by a wait-and-see stance.
Key levels: BTC resistance 64,500–64,800, support 63,600 and 63,000; ETH resistance 1,830, support 1,780.
Trading approach: This round is only a rebound for oversold conditions. Medium-term downside risks are not resolved. Don’t chase spots higher; pullbacks to support are better for staggered entries at lower prices. For futures, rely on overhead resistance to trial-short with a light position and tightly control leverage. Since altcoin trend continuity is poor, try to avoid. Tomorrow’s inflation data is likely to trigger a sharp wick/needle-like spike.