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BTC、ETH rebound hits resistance: the market is waiting for the next directional choice
While watching the chart last night, I noticed a fairly clear change. Although BTC and ETH didn’t see a major drop, a problem during the upswing has become increasingly obvious: prices are moving up, but the capital and trading volume aren’t fully keeping pace.
Many people, seeing a rebound, will immediately assume the market has restarted. But there’s a rule in trading: truly strong rallies must come with synchronized strengthening in capital, trading volume, and overall market sentiment. If prices are rising but the driving force is gradually weakening, then in the short term you need to guard against pullback risk. $ETH $BTC
At the moment, there hasn’t been any clear one-sided catalyst in the news flow. ETF capital flows have improved somewhat recently, and market sentiment has recovered compared with earlier periods, but the sustainability of inflows still needs to be monitored.
So what matters more now is this: whether the rally can attract new capital to come in.
BOLL: BTC is currently near the upper resistance zone, but breakout strength is insufficient. If it doesn’t break out with increased volume, the resistance area is likely to see short-term sell pressure.
Capital flow: Capital outflows are currently relatively strong, and market absorption capacity is weak. The rally needs fresh buy pressure to keep going; otherwise, it can easily turn into a spike-and-pullback.
ATR: Volatility is starting to contract. This phase usually means the market is waiting for a new direction, and entry levels need to be spread out.
MACD: The red histogram bars are starting to weaken, and upside momentum is declining. The bull move hasn’t fully ended, but short-term strength is fading.
Trading volume: Price is rising, but trading volume isn’t showing a clear expansion. Without volume to support the move, you should be cautious about chasing longs.
KDJ: The indicator continues to move downward, which is bearish in the short term.
My plan: After the rebound enters the resistance zone, look for short opportunities.
Today’s hunting plan
🕸️ Target: BTC
🚗 Hunting ground: 64250-64650
🙂↕️ Turn back home: above 65150
🎯 Hunting target: 62950. If it breaks, continue to watch the 622-616 zone
🕸️ Target: ETH
🚗 Hunting ground: 1810-1820
🙂↕️ Turn back home: above 1842
🎯 Hunting target: 1785. If it breaks, continue to watch the 1738-1720 zone
The hardest part of trading isn’t spotting opportunities—it’s staying calm when everyone else is excited.